Like any other year, you’d expect at least one movie hitting the big screen that takes advantage of the holiday season and centers it’s story around theme of Christmastime. This year is no exception. We were greeted with a major one this year in the form of the action film, Red One (2024), which brings a bit of Michael Bay-esque mayhem to the Santa Claus mythos. The movie also brings in two of the biggest action movie stars in Hollywood today, Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans, to give it even more cinematic gravitas. Unfortunately, even with it’s well-timed holiday season release date, the film failed to deliver the presents at the box office, becoming a rare misfire for the the two stars on the marquee. But that’s not the thing that got the notice of Hollywood insiders. What really sparked a conversation around this movie was it’s astronomical price tag. The movie, which is based around an original concept centered on the mythos of Santa and holiday traditions, cost over $250 million to make. That is an astonishingly high production budget for what is essentially nothing more than a Christmas movie. Now, the movie was financed by Amazon Studios, which is part of one of the world’s wealthiest corporations, so it’s soft box office results will not exactly sink the fortunes of the studio, but even still, many are questioning why a Christmas film needed a quarter of a billion dollar budget. It’s been speculated that the budget ballooned because of cost overruns due to the lack of professionalism on the part of it’s main star (Dwayne Johnson) who caused multiple delays, but it still doesn’t account for why the project needed to keep going despite all of the production issues. The answer lies in the fact that Holiday movies have grown into a much larger business over the last couple years.
In the last few decades, we’ve seen a rise in what can be considered Holiday blockbusters. Christmas films certainly aren’t anything new, as they have existed in Hollywood as far back as the early days with classics like It’s a Wonderful Life (1946) and Miracle on 34th Street (1947). But it was with the success of Home Alone (1990) that Hollywood took notice that a Christmas themed movie could not only perform well at the box office, but also be dominant too. Further Christmas themed movies would continue to emerge afterwards that were not only successful but could also lead at the box office. There was The Santa Clause (1994), How the Grinch Stole Christmas (2000) and The Polar Express (2004), all of which delivered surprisingly strong box office results. In some of the cases, these movies succeeded not just because they capitalized on the holiday season, but because they connected with audiences in a way that transcended their holiday theming. Home Alone especially stands out more for it’s comedic pratfalls than it does for it’s holiday aesthetics, because that’s what drove people to the theaters over and over again. This is usually what separates the good holiday films from the bad, as not every holiday movie is a success at the box office. Red One is proving that right now, as it does not have the legs to carry it through the holidays and will likely be out of theaters even before Christmas Day itself. But, there is still a lot of signs that Hollywood is not weary of banking heavily in Christmas themed movies anytime soon even as movies like Red One continue to eat it at the box office. What we are finding out is that Holiday movies are a far more resilient genre all on their own that have longer shelf lives than most other types of movies.
The reason why studios are willing to invest so much in new holiday themed films is because of something called the long tail effect. This long tail effect is when a movie premieres in theaters or somewhere else and remains in the public view long after, You see it with movies that remain profitable many years later, helped by a healthy presence in subsequent television airings and re-releases. Some movies get rediscovered this way too, such as It’s a Wonderful Life which had initially bombed at the box office and then later became a perennial classic. While the long tail effect can happen to movies in any genre, it seems to more frequently happen with holiday films. This has been an interesting phenomenon in recent years and it is beginning to be reflected in the way that more and more holiday films are being produced. Hollywood certainly is more comfortable investing in something that they know is going to have long term value beyond it’s initial release. One thing that has certainly changed in recent years is the frequency. While it was common to see a new holiday classic emerge every couple of years, we now are seeing at least one new movie a year specifically be spotlighted with a Christmas theme at it’s center. This year it’s Red One, a couple years ago it was the R-rated action comedy Violent Night (2022). And I’m sure that the next couple of years will give us plenty more. But what is interesting is that these movies are not just being made to solely rely on their theatrical box office. Now, many more holiday movies are getting made with the intention of sticking around for many years.
What I think has contributed to this trend is the creation of programming blocks on cable television and on streaming. These are special selections of movies centered on Christmas that are meant to cater to their audience’s desire to see holiday themed entertainment in the lead up to the special day. The cable channel Freeform dedicates the entire month of December to playing nothing but Holiday themed movies and specials. And on Christmas Day itself, the cable network TBS devotes it’s channel to a marathon run of one specific movie, 1983’s A Christmas Story, which has become an annual tradition all on it’s own. On streaming services, there are specific specialty pages created just to help viewers find holiday themed movies and show episodes. And what these specially selected programming blocks do is to keep the same holiday themed movies and specials in the public eye year after year. These have definitely helped in making the long tail effect work especially well for holiday movies. But, the programming blocks can’t just survive on the same small sampling of holiday classics we all know about. They need new entries to help keep things fresh over time, though the best of them still remain an essential piece. Sure, you’ll easily see evergreen titles like Home Alone or The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993) in the mix, but every year there are newer movies that get added, whether created as an original by the station or the streamer in question, or became an essential addition due to it’s box office performance. It’s too early to know if Red One will see that kind of future, though the fact that it was made by Amazon tells you that it’s almost a certainty that Prime Video will be spotlighting it on their front page for many Christmases to come.
While these programming blocks definitely take advantage of the holiday season as a whole, it’s hard to know what kind of movies will become perennial favorites. The problem is that Hollywood is producing a glut of holiday movies every year, and most of them don’t stick the way that they hoped they would. Hallmark has created literally hundreds of holiday themed movies, but I don’t think many people can name one right off the top of their heads. Still, Hallmark’s holiday block of films are among the most watched on television every single year, so their business model is still working well for them, even if their Christmas movies all blend together into an indistinguishable holiday blob of entertainment. The same thing is also happening with broadcasters that cater to the same crowd as Hallmark, such as the Lifetime network or Netflix. These easy to digest, non-offensive holiday themed movies are good at capturing that holiday spirit, but they don’t stand out like the perennial classics do, and those are the ones that continue to drive the highest viewership during the holiday season. People just have the desire to re-watch the best Christmas movies there are to get into the holiday spirit, but it’s a hard canon to add onto. When the same movies continue to generate viewership year after year, why try to replace any of them? Just like any other genre, it’s hard to know exactly what movies are going to click with audiences and holiday movies ae no different. For some of the “perennial” Christmas films, they were likely created without ever knowing that they would take on another life as an essential holiday film. And yet, Hollywood tries a lot harder than they should trying to manufacture the next big holiday classic.
This is probably the reason why holiday films are becoming bigger budget undertakings in recent years. The bar has been set high by the movies that we recognize as a perennial holiday classic. A movie like Red One attempts to hit those holiday tropes in a big way, and sadly comes across as too much of a manufactured product rather than a movie made with a lot of heart. The movie banks on us knowing all of the mythos surrounding Santa Claus and the Christmas season, mainly through the secularized sense, and tries to use all that as the unique element added into a standard action movie plot. It’s a mix that doesn’t work as intended because we can see the intention behind the film, which is a cyncial ploy to re-sell a regurgitated, standard action movie plot with a new gimmick, and hope it hits that holiday sweet spot. This is certainly the response it’s getting in theaters, but separated from it’s box office disappointment is it possible that the movie will have a long shelf life as a title spotlighted on Amazon’s own streaming platform? It’s too early to know, but that long tail effect has kept even bad holiday movies like Jingle All the Way (1996) and Eight Crazy Nights (2002) in the public eye for much longer than they should have been. The huge budget that Red One received certainly gives it a grander feel, and that’s likely what the filmmakers were intending with their movie. Because the bar is high for standing out in the genre, you’ve got to present your movie as something pretty special. Maybe Red One accomplishes this on a visual level, but it remains pretty hollow as a story. Still, it’s an indicator that holiday movies are getting more ambitious as they try to crack open that door into becoming a perennial favorite for the season.
The only thing is, a lot of the holiday classics became just that out of more humble means. National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation (1989) was just a second sequel in a comedy franchise, taking the next logical step past the summer based vacation of the first movie, and managing to surpass it with it’s spot on holiday observations mined for comedy. It certainly didn’t need a massive budget to do that. A Christmas Story and Home Alone were also likewise modest projects that only grew in esteem over the years due to their perfectly executed storylines that tie into Christmas. It’s a Wonderful Life isn’t even about Christmas for most of it’s run time, and only incorporates the holiday into it’s inspirational final act. In all, it’s difficult to actually manufacture a perennial holiday classic, and even with a bigger budget and big conceptual gimmick, your movie is still going to face an uphill battle to be accepted as an essential part of the holiday season. But, this season also gives more movies a chance than any other genre towards achieving that classic status, because there is a audience that is primed every year to expect something new over the holidays. Being a Christmas movie definitely brings it’s own built in public attention because there are people out there who seek out holiday themed entertainment. While that journey to the podium of all time classics is a very narrow one, the platform to launch that journey from is quite broad. That’s why we see such a large annual investment from Hollywood towards making so many holiday themed movies. And in the case of movies like Red One, they are getting to be bigger and more ambitious in the hopes of standing out. But as we’ve also seen, the holiday audience is discerning and more prone towards accepting past favorites over flashy newcomers.
The holiday season is becoming a much bigger deal when it comes to the movies that take advantage of it. The reason why Hollywood considers it essential to invest so much money into creating new holiday films is because they hope that one or more will give them that long term success that holiday films typically bring. With the case of Red One, the question arises about what is too much to spend on a holiday movie? Red One is certainly going to be a prime example of how not to spend money on a Christmas movie, and will almost certainly leave Amazon in the red. But, is Amazon looking at the short term box office or the long term viewership on Prime Video as as their barometer for the success of the film. It may play differently as a permanent fixture on their streaming platform that they can re-promote every holiday season. But, it’s just one example out of many. None of the classics are ever likely to diminish over time, because they continue to hit that sweet spot for the holidays that we all appreciate. The question is, what else may land in that special category of perennial favorites? For the amount of money that is increasingly becoming a part of Hollywood’s plans for the holiday season, something of quality is likely to emerge. The long term prospects for success the a perennial holiday film provides is what helps to drive new investment into the genre each year, and eventually something will land and become a new classic. It may not be this year, but Hollywood will keep trying. In any case, there is an excitingly open market during the holiday season that we all participate in as we search for new favorites while also indulging in what makes Christmas so fun. And the classics will remain there as well to help give us that entertainment fix during the holidays. I for one always have to catch Christmas Vacation once every year(in addition to Charlie Brown’s Christmas). I’m sure that all of you have your go to essentials as well. With the frequency that Hollywood is attempting to give us something new each year, let’s hope that another holiday classic is waiting to be opened under that Christmas tree very soon.