A year’s worth of preparation finally culminates this Sunday in the heart of Hollywood. Every studio has put up their top tier campaign strategies into effect, but ultimately it all comes down to the final count that is a closely guarded secret in the PricewaterhouseCoopers accounting offices. It’s Oscar season and the town is at the edge of it’s seat seeing who the Academy will crown as the best that the industry had to offer in the last year. Unlike the last two years where one movie was clearly going into the ceremony as a clear favorite, Everything Everywhere All at Once in 2022 and Oppenheimer in 2023, this year’s Academy Awards has been a bit of a toss up. There are several categories where a movie or performance is clearly favored above the rest, but the big one at the end of the night, Best Picture, is still without a front runner. What has defined this year’s Oscar season, however, is a very contentious negative whisper campaign that has been aimed at taking down some of the perceived front-runners. In one case in particular, the smear campaigning seems to have work, and for many, it was warranted. When the nominations were announced a month ago, people were shocked by the strong showing of the Netflix produced Emilia Perez, a musical about a Mexican drug lord who transitions into a woman. The movie garnered 13 nominations, only one off of the record, and it left many in the industry scratching their heads. The movie’s critical reception was mixed and audiences were definitely not happy with it either. Not only that, but the two groups of people that the movie was attempting to represent, Mexicans and the Transgender community, were also condemning the film, stating that it was a gross misrepresentation of them. So, was this really the front-runner? Only a few weeks after the nominations were announced, a scandal broke out where old racist tweets from the film’s star Karla Sofia Gascon resurfaced, and it created a backlash that has essentially killed any chance of Emilia Perez taking home the top prize at the Oscars, or much else. Apart from this, there was even criticism leveled at another Oscar favorite, The Brutalist, because the production team used a bit of AI technology in post-production. These different criticisms has made this one of the nastier Oscar seasons we’ve seen in quite a while.
Like every year, I will share my thoughts and personal picks for this year’s Academy Awards. In particular, I will go in depth on the top categories and then do a quick rundown of all the remaining awards. These are my personal thoughts, and not exactly my recommendations for placing bets; my track record is never flawless. But, despite how well I do or do not pick the winners, I have made the effort to be as informed as possible, and that includes having seen most of the nominated movies, including all 10 of the Best Picture nominees. I ever make an effort to see all of the nominated shorts. So, with all that out of the way, let’s take a look at what to expect at this year’s Academy Awards.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Peter Straughan, Conclave; Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi, Emilia Perez; RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys; Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John Divine G Whitfield, Sing Sing
The downfall of Emilia Perez is going to be felt across a number of categories in this Oscar ceremony, but even before then I feel it already had a slim chance in this category. Overall, this is one category where a clear favorite has emerged, and that’s the suspense filled screenplay by Peter Straughan for the movie Conclave. Based on the book of the same name by Robert Harris, Conclave’s screenplay is the quintessential wordy kind of script that features the kinds of things that Academy voters love; big monologues, intricate plotting, shocking twists, and extensive metaphorical subtext. Covering the days leading up to the election of a new Pope, the movie shares a lot of parallel theming with the current political state of the world, so the film almost certainly is resonating with politically conscious Academy voters. But is it deserving of the Oscar. It’s not undeserving; Peter Straughan’s script is a taut and extremely well crafted piece of writing. The one negative thing about it is that it isn’t particularly groundbreaking either. It is a very standard, and well executed adaptation, that serves it’s purpose but doesn’t do anything that really is surprising or groundbreaking. What really stands apart in this category for me is the screenplay for the prison drama, Sing Sing. The movie, which shows us a story set around a true dramatic arts program at the Sing Sing prison in New York state, actually featured story input from former inmates who participated in the program. One of those former inmates, Clarence Maclin, who also has a key role in the film, was nominated for his contribution towards the film’s story, which is an inspiring story in of itself. Sing Sing is a wonderfully humane film that offers a much more subdued experience in comparison to the more bombastic Conclave, but even still it’s story and screenplay will hit a nerve because of the message behind it, showing the healing power of creating art. Given it’s win already at the WGA Awards, this is Conclave’s Oscar to lose, and the movie’s recent SAG Award win also puts some more wind in it’s sails here. But if Sing Sing manages to pull off an upset, it may lead to one of the most emotionally stirring wins we’ve seen in this category for a while.
Who Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Who Should Win: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John Divine G Whitfield, Sing Sing
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David, September 5
Without a doubt, the most stacked category of the night. If any of these movies had come out in different years, they’d all be front-runners, but alas they have to compete against one another. If one movie clearly has the least chance of winning, it’s September 5, because it’s the most conventional of the bunch. Jesse Eisenberg has won a lot of praise for his screenplay for A Real Pain, and it is conceivable that he might come away a winner here, given that he’s already well respected as an actor in the industry. Coralie Fargeat also has earned a lot of praise too for her screenplay that manages to weave a sharp critique of the unforgiving beauty standards placed on women in the entertainment industry with the genre of body horror. But ultimately, it comes down to the two movies that are also the front-runners in the Best Picture race. Just to give you a head’s up, you’ll be seeing me pick The Brutalist a lot here, because it was far an away my favorite movie of the year. But, my number two favorite movie of the year was Anora, which is also nominated here. I ultimately want to side with The Brutalist, though the odds right now seem to favor Anora, based on it’s WGA win. For me, The Brutalist just has so many complex layers to it. It’s this fascinating deconstruction of the idea of the American dream while also being a fascinating portrait of an artist. In addition, it also tells you about the history of architecture in the 20th Century, and how art was able to persevere after the atrocities of the War and the Holocaust. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay is also incredibly well paced, making the colossal three and a half hour length feel far shorter than it is. If Sean Baker does in fact win this year, I’ll still be happy. He’s always been an incredible writer and great observer of human behavior, and Anora is definitely his most assured screenplay to date. But, for me The Brutalist, crafted by an incredible husband and wife team of Brady and Mona, to me is working on a whole other level. It’s a tough race, but I’ll be satisfied either way.
Who Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Who Should Win: Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Yura Borisov, Anora; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Many years you will see one nominee carve out an easy path to victory through a dominant presence in all of the bellwether awards leading up to the Oscars. The closest thing that we have to a lock at this year’s Awards appears to be Kieran Culkin for his “supporting” role in A Real Pain. He has virtually swept through awards season, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of any loss in that momentum. If his name isn’t announced on Oscar night, it will be a stunning upset. But, some would say that his presence here is cheating a bit. His role in A Real Pain is really a co-lead with writer/director and star Jesse Eisenberg. They share almost an equal amount of screen time in the movie. The only reason it seems that Kieran was designated for the supporting actor category is because the studio Searchlight Pictures thought he would have a better shot at winning there, and it looks like they’re right. And it’s not an undeserved win; he definitely is a standout in A Real Pain, and is a big part of why that movie is so beloved. And he’s been a longtime fixture in Hollywood, having acted in movies since he was a child, alongside his famous older brother Macaulay Culkin. But, for me, I feel like the more traditionally supporting performances of the nominees should be more deserving of the honor. It was great to see Yura Borisov get recognized for his scene-stealing turn in Anora. Jeremy Strong’s incredible performance as shadowy lawyer Roy Cohn in The Apprentice was also incredible, and the fact that he’s going up against his Succession co-star Kieran also adds an interesting wrinkle into this race. But, for me, the performance Guy Pearce delivered in The Brutalist stands out above the rest. Pearce, who surprising is nominated for the first time despite his active presence in Hollywood for decades, delivers a tour de force as a hot tempered business tycoon who both elevates and tortures Adrian Brody’s genius architect in the film. His ability to balance the highs and lows of that character and making him a fully rounded personality in a film where he could have easily turned into archetype makes his performance extra special in the film. So, Kieran Culkin is almost certainly going to win, but if someone else were to upset I would definitely want it to be Guy Pearce, which would certainly be a long overdue honor.
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Who Should Win: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
If there has been anyone who has managed to escape the implosion of Emilia Perez’s disastrous Oscar season, it’s been Zoe Saldana. Zoe has still been cleaning up in all of the other ceremonies this Awards season, and it looks like she is also a lock for the Oscar, though maybe not quite as strong as Kieran in the Supporting Actor race. The only question mark is how the Emilia Perez backlash is hitting with the Academy voters. Are they going to be as forgiving as the other Awards have. On the surface, her performance certainly has all of the hallmarks of an Oscar winning role. She not only has to span a wide range of emotions through her performance, but she’s also singing throughout the film (in Spanish!) and dancing with some often complex choreography involved. Zoe’s background in ballet certainly helped in this regard, and despite the movie receiving a lukewarm reception from audiences and critics, her performance has been almost universally praised. The other problem with her nomination, though, is that it is yet another co-lead role masquerading as a supporting performance. It could be argued that the film actually centers more around her character than it does the titular Emilia Perez. For me, I do think Zoe is deserving of the recognition, but her performance is not as impressive as some of the others. The Oscars are unlikely to favor Ariana Grande’s performance as Glinda in Wicked, though she was very delightful in her hilarious scene-stealing performance in the blockbuster. Isabella Rossellini brings a great sense of veteran aura to this category, but her excellent performance in Conclave is extremely brief (less than 7 total minutes). And Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown is solid, but not particularly groundbreaking. Once again, I hold up everything from The Brutalist in highest regard, and that includes Felicity Jones’ performance as the architect’s wife. Her performance, like Adrian Brody’s and Guy Pearce’s works so magnificently with the operatic heights that the film sets to achieve, especially with the climatic confrontation near the movie’s end which is Felicity’s finest moment in the film. With Zoe being an already beloved fixture in Hollywood, especially after being a part of major franchises like Guardians of the Galaxy and Avatar, it seems like the industry is ready to give her some well earned laurels, but a Felicity Jones upset would be ideal too.
Who Will Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Who Should Win: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Adrian Brody, The Brutalist; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
A week ago, I would’ve thought that this was going to be yet another race defined by a clear front-runner. But a surprise upset in the Best Actor race at the SAG Awards has suddenly made this category a lot more suspenseful. Adrian Brody has looked for a while to be the favorite here with his masterful turn as architect Laszlow Toth in The Brutalist, a man driven to create a great work of art at great cost to himself. His performance is so multilayered and unforgettable that he certainly looked like he was gearing up for an easy win at this year’s Academy Awards. But last weekend, the Oscar race was shaken up by Timothee Chalamet picking up the SAG award for his performance as musician Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. It’s been a strong year for Chalamet all around, starting off with the strong holiday box office hold for his musical Wonka (2023), and then the colossal success of Dune: Part Two (2024) in the spring, and then finally culminating with the fruitful awards season release of A Complete Unknown. Hollywood certainly loves it when an actor buries themselves into a performance as another famous celebrity, and Chalamet’s performance is certainly a strong one; points for being the rare actor in a musical biopic that does his own singing. But, does he have enough momentum to beat Adrian Brody, the presumptive favorite. The one negative that Brody has against him is that he’s the only one in this category that’s already won before, back in 2002 for The Pianist, becoming the youngest winner of the award to date. Ironically, Timothee Chalamet could take that record himself this year, at his expense. It’s all going to come down to these two, despite some exceptional performances from the other nominees; and bravo to the Academy for having the guts to nominate Sebastian Stan for his unflattering but complex portrayal of Trump. Chalamet may be rising late, but I still see Adrian Brody winning his second Oscar here for a performance that truly stands as one of the most monumental seen on screen in a long while. Given that the Academy voting closed days before Chalamet’s upset SAG win gives me a feeling that Brody’s victory may still be an inevitability, but who knows.
Who Will Win: Adrian Brody, The Brutalist
Who Should Win: Adrian Brody, The Brutalist
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Mikey Madison, Anora; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here; Demi Moore, The Substance; Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
This is without a doubt the most contested race of the evening, with two and maybe even three possible winners that could come away with the award on Oscar night. First off, history was made this year with Karla Sofia Gascon becoming the first out transgender performer ever to be nominated for an Academy Award. And that’s the only good thing I’ll say about her nomination, because she deserves no other praise given what the scandal has dug up. Cynthia Erivo is justly praised for her incredible acting and singing as Elphaba in Wicked, though it’s unlikely going to be her night as well. The other three performances are the ones that still have a good shot. For me, the performance of the year belonged to Mieky Madison for her star-making role in Anora. She is a force of nature in that film, and it’s been pleasing to see her star rise because of this movie. After playing bit parts in movies like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019) and Scream (2022), she took the opportunity to finally carry a movie in the lead and she ran with it. Her character Ani is without a doubt my favorite from the last year, being both hilarious and at the same time real and grounded in a tragic sense. Madison has done fairly well throughout awards season, picking up the BAFTA and Independent Spirit awards along the way. But, she has to contend with industry veteran Demi Moore in what has been seen as a big comeback role for the former “Brat Pack” icon. Moore finally achieved her first Oscar nomination after a nearly fifty year career in the movies. It’s all the more remarkable that she’s nominated because The Substance is a fairly hardcore body horror movie that’s also sharply critical of the entertainment industry. The fact that the Academy is overlooking all of that is a testament to the strength of Demi’s performance. It seems likely that this is Demi Moore’s year, mainly because she’s a beloved fixture in Hollywood with a lot of friends in the Academy, and that this is a long overdue acknowledgement of her career achievements. But, an upset win from Mikey Madison would certainly please me as well. And it is possible that surprise Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres may also steal away a win from both of them for her highly praised performance in I’m Still Here.
Who Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Who Should Win: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez; Sean Baker, Anora; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
This is another race that comes down to two likely choices, and they both just happen to be the directors of my two favorite movies of the year. Brady Corbet delivered something of a miracle this year with The Brutalist, a monumental American epic with a three and a half hour run time that feels a fraction of that length and was also filmed on a minuscule $10 million budget. Naturally, that impressive feat of direction would make him a runaway favorite here, but his competition is the equally impressive work done by Sean Baker on his film Anora. Baker has been a favorite in independent film for a long time, with he beautiful Neo-realist portraits of people on the fringes of American society. Anora is his most assured feat of direction yet; a complex story of rags to riches and back to rags that runs the gamut of tones, while at the same time expertly handling the escalating amount of absurdity that his characters go through. After an already impressive body of work built up over the last decade, it seems that the Academy is ready to give Baker his due respect as a filmmaker. Baker has already won the key bellwether honor of the DGA Award leading up to the Oscars; a precursor award that almost always goes to the eventual winner. But it’s not always 100%. Corbet would indeed be the one and only other nominee that could steal away the Best Director honor from Baker. You look at a movie like The Brutalist, and it is a movie that exemplifies capital “D” directing. It’s is tough choice to make, but I think that if we see an indication of Anora having a really good night if it picks up the Screenplay and Editing awards, it pretty much cements Sean Baker’s front runner status and will inevitably see him taking the top honor as well. And it would be well deserved too. I’ve been a fan of Sean Baker’s work since the amazing The Florida Project (2017). Seeing him join the ranks of Best Director winners would be a great result to see, but I would also like that for Brady Corbet as well. The actor turned director may only be on his third film, but what an impressive film it is, and one that I can see becoming a celebrated masterpiece years from now regardless of what happens at the Oscars. The DGA honor tells me Sean Baker has a slight edge, but Corbet has a good chance to upset.
Who Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Who Should Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: A Complete Unkonwn; Anora; The Brutalist; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Perez; I’m Still Here; Nickel Boys; The Substance; Wicked
This is without a doubt one of the most contentious Best Picture races we have seen in years. There’s no dominant front runner like Everything Everywhere All at Once or Oppenheimer. This year, it is very much up for grabs from a variety of films in this category. One thing is clear, despite it’s dominant showing in the nominations, Emilia Perez’s chances of winning the top prize are almost 0 the weeks of scandal it has gone through; and that’s probably a relief to most people out there. Wicked and Dune: Part Two were definitely the blockbusters that were most deserving of a nomination from last year, but that’s about as close as they’ll get. The Substance and I’m Still Here have better odds in other races, namely Best Actress and International Film respectively, and Nickel Boys is here for it’s uniqueness, but perhaps too small to get noticed beyond that. And musical biopics have always fared better in acting categories, so that keeps it from the top as well, though it depends on how many Bob Dylan fans are in the Academy. That leaves three movies with a very strong shot at collecting the top Prize. With it’s recent wins at the BAFTA and SAG awards, Edward Berger’s Conclave seems to have picked up a bit of momentum late into the race. Of the top of the field nominees, Conclave is the most conventional Oscar bait of the bunch, though it is still a fairly good movie worthy of being here. If the Academy is looking to play things safe, this is the movie that would benefit; a good old fashioned, lavish studio made drama for mass audiences. But. as we’ve seen in recent years, the Academy has been willing to honor outsiders as well. That’s why, like Best Director, this comes down to a showdown between The Brutalist and Anora. Both have numerous accolades built up already. If Anora wins, it will be only the second Palme d’Or winner from Cannes to ever make it to a Best Picture win, the first being Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite (2019). And Corbet also won the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival for his direction, as well as a Golden Globe. It’s a tight race, but with the wins at the DGA, PGA and WGA, I feel like Anora has the edge. Certainly, because it was my favorite movie of the year, I would like to see The Brutalist win, but since Anora was my second favorite, I’ll be very happy to see it win the night as well.
What Will Win: Anora
What Should Win: The Brutalist
And here is my quick rundown of all the remaining categories with my picks to win in each:
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist; Best Film Editing: The Brutalist; Best Production Design: Wicked; Best Costume Design: Wicked; Best Sound: A Complete Unknown; Best Make-up and Hairstyling: The Substance; Best Original Score: The Brutalist; Best Original Song: “El Mal” from Emilia Perez; Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two; Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land; Best Documentary Short: Incident; Best Animated Feature: Flow; Best Animated Short: Magic Candies; Best Live Action Short: A Lien; Best International Feature: I’m Still Here
The fact that we are going into this Oscar ceremony without a clear front-runner should make things a bit suspenseful for this year’s show. We may get an indication of who benefited from the last minute momentum through some of the earlier categories, but this may also be one of those Oscar years where the Academy likes to spread the wealth, and the inevitable Best Picture winner will likely only be the victor with one or two other awards. A lot of the time, I tend to feel better when my favorite movie of the year has little chance of winning, because then I’m not left heartbroken. But this year is interesting because it’s my two favorite films at the top. If Anora comes away victorious, it will be the second year in a row where my runner up favorite wins Best Picture; last year’s being Oppenheimer of course. I doubt we’ll see the least deserving film of the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez, win the big award, but then again this is the same Academy that gave that honor to Green Book (2018) six years ago. I think we’re pretty safe from an embarrassing, tone deaf move like that from the Academy since there are so many strong contenders that have risen to the top. One thing for certain is that this is going to be a much different ceremony than what we’ve seen in past years. Because of the wildfires that devastated the townships Pacific Palisades and Altadena, the Academy Awards is planning to hold a more subdued ceremony in respect for those who lost their homes; including many who work within the industry itself. There will many acknowledgements of the brave work done by the firefighters and first responders who helped to save lives in the tragedy, and a plea to those watching at home to help support those who still need help putting their lives together. I hope the show is able to balance this serious tragedy with the pomp and pageantry that the Academy Awards usually shows. One thing I know for certain is that Conan O’Brien will deliver a fun and energetic atmosphere as well in his first hosting gig. O’Brien’s ability to put on a good show no matter the circumstance has always been one of his strengths, and I’m excited to see what he does on Oscar night. So, with all that said, I hope my choices pan out well this year. I feel like Anora is the movie to beat at this moment, but it could definitely be a nail-biter by the end. So, let’s hope for a good Oscar ceremony this year, and hopefully another good year at the movies leading up to the next one.