The year has already been a roller coaster ride, and not just at the box office.  Focusing in on the state of movies for now, the last few months have been defined as being alarmingly weak at the box office, save for one unlikely savior.  The month of March was particularly marked with some alarming box office results.  In a month that has usually seen a strong performer or two taking advantage of those Spring Break crowds, this year’s March for the first time since Covid had failed to deliver a film that made over $100 million domestic.  This same time last year, we had two films reach that mark with Dune: Part Two (2024) and Godzilla vs. Kong: The New Empire (2024).  But this year, we had two of the costliest flops to to hit the screens in quite a while.  Warner Brothers’ ambitious sci-fi epic from auteur director Bong Joon-ho, Mickey 17 (2025) fizzled out pretty quickly beyond it’s opening weekend, and failed to recoup even a quarter of it’s original $100 million+ budget.  Then there was Disney’s Snow White (2025) which is going to be an even bigger financial loser for it’s studio, as Disney may finally be seeing it’s audience lose interest in their live action remake phase. Couple this with an under-performance from Marvel, with their recent film Captain America: Brave New World (2025) only barely reaching break even and a slew of other box office non-starters, 2025 is definitely starting off on the wrong footing.  But then came one of the most unexpected turnarounds in recent memory.  After three months of box office woes, suddenly theaters have been coming alive again with the surprising success of The Minecraft Movie (2025).  How the film is able to generate the box office it had had even with mostly negative reviews is certainly a mystery.  Some of it may be a Rocky Horror like phenomenon with audiences attending the films just for the trashiness of it all and to have the experience of seeing the movie with a rowdy crowd.  Whether people actually like it or not (and I certainly don’t) the good thing is that Minecraft is helping the movie theater industry weather what has been otherwise a bad start to the year.

Now of course it is time to look to the future and see what will be the movie that we’ll all be talking about in the Summer months ahead.  While the Spring has been a tough time at the box office so far, there are a lot of positive signs on the horizon that this Summer will fare a lot better.  Like in the years past, I will be going through this Summer’s most interesting coming attractions, and tell you which ones are the must sees, the ones that have me worried, and the ones that I think should be skipped.  Keep in mind, these previews are based on my own thoughts about the effectiveness of the marketing as well as the buzz that each one is generating before their respective releases.  My predictions don’t always pan out, and sometimes I may miss the mark and either overestimate or underestimate a movie.  The only thing I wish to make happen with these previews is to draw attention to the movies that are on the horizon in the hope that it helps all of you be informed about what to expect at the movies this upcoming season.  So, with all that said, let’s take a look at the Movies of Summer 2025

MUST SEES:

THE FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS (JULY 25)

It’s a given every summer that when Marvel has a new movie coming out, people are going to want to pay attention.  After taking most of last year off with only one single theatrical release, Deadpool & Wolverine (2024), Marvel is back to it’s more ambitious release schedule of multiple films per year.  They had a hard time with Captain America: Brave New World this February, but that was a film long plagued by production problems.  This film and the other Summer release which I’ll spotlight later have not had as difficult a development and are actually arriving with a lot of positive buzz.  Of the remaining Marvel movies, it’s this one that looks to be something really interesting.  Marvel has attempted to bring comic books “first family” to the big screen twice before, and it hasn’t worked out yet.  2015’s Fant4stic was an especially miserable failure.  This time around, it does look like Marvel is making an effort to get this one right and do justice to the iconic characters of the Fantastic Four.  It’s interesting that they are starting their new version of the Fantastic Four in a different universe than the regular MCU.  While it’s an interesting call story wise, it does offer the creative team to make some bold choices in the world building.  The retro-futuristic world that they live in is visually very stunning; mixing high sci-fi with mid-century design.  Another positive sign is the comic book accurate look of Ben Grimm, aka The Thing.  Before, he was either an actor buried under a ton of prosthetic make-up, or in Fant4stic’s case, a terribly animated CGI monstrosity.  Here, his appearance is very close to how he looks in the comic books, while at the same time allowing for expressive features that help bring his personality out much better.  It helps that Emmy winning character actor Ebon Moss-Bachrach is also doing a great job of embodying the character.  Indeed, all of the Four members look right for the part, including Joseph Quinn as the Human Torch, Vanessa Kirby as The Invisible Woman, and Pedro Pascal as Mr. Fantastic.  The fact that they’ll also be dealing with a galactic threat the size of the celestial earth-devouring Galactus should also make this quite the spectacle.  It took a while for Marvel Studios to finally get the rights back to bring the Fantastic Four into the MCU.  Let’s hope the third time is the charm for these four.

SUPERMAN (JULY 11)

While Marvel is preparing it’s summer roll out of highly anticipated titles, it’s rival studio DC is about to begin a new era.  Under the supervision of director James Gunn, we are about to see a relaunch of the DC Universe, and who better to get things started than the man of steel himself, Superman.  The Snyderverse Superman, played by Henry Cavill, always felt like he got the short end in the DCEU, as director Zack Snyder seemed much more interested in the Batman side of DC’s catalog.  For this new version, James Gunn himself is taking on the responsibility of launching Superman’s new era, and that seems to be especially a good sign for the future of the character.  One of the best things about James Gunn as a filmmaker is that he puts a lot of value in comic book tropes, and in particular, he embraces the sillier side that helps to make them so much fun.  He displayed that perfectly with his Guardian of the Galaxy trilogy at Marvel, and managed to carry that over to DC with his excellent The Suicide Squad (2021) and Peacemaker series.  What seems to be especially exciting about his new take on Superman is that he’s not wasting any time in building the world around him.  No more rehashing Superman’s already well tread back story.  For this movie, the DC Universe is already fully formed, and we are just jumping right in.  It’s probably smart, because the problem with the Snyderverse was that they were attempting to build everything up from scratch while at the same time speed running through all of the key story-lines, preventing anything from actually coalescing into a complete whole.  Here Superman (played by newcomer David Corenswet) shares this world with a lot more super heroes, including a Green Lantern, Hawkgirl, and a few other in what looks like to be a big screen adaptation of the All-Star Superman comics.  Oh, and Krypto the super dog is also making his live action debut as well.  In contrast with the Snyderverse, the main goal of Gunn’s take on Superman is to return to the sense of fun that we had with the old Richard Donner/ Christopher Reeve classic, which is probably why there are hints of John Williams’ iconic score in the trailer.  Here’s hoping that James Gunn puts the DCU on a strong footing and brings about a bright new future with one of the greatest super heroes of all time.

THUNDERBOLTS* (MAY 2)

While James Gunn is getting his universe up and running over at DC, Marvel is preparing to introduce it’s own take on the Suicide Squad.  When the Avengers are unavailable, who does humanity turn to is the question being posed by this movie.  The answer is a grouping of misfits and outcasts with something to prove.  The team assembled for this version of the Thunderbolts are some of the characters that we’ve been introduced to along the way in the post Endgame MCU, many of whom have done something wrong in the past.  The team consists of former black widow Yelena (Florence Pugh), Red Guardian (David Harbour), phase shifting criminal Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), assassin Taskmaster (Olga Kurylenko), and disgraced Captain America turned U.S. Agent John Walker (Wyatt Russell), all under the supervision of CIA chief Valentina Allegra de Fontaine (Julia Louis-Dreyfus).  The idea of assembling these tarnished figures together and hoping they have it within them to save the world is an appealing one to base a movie around, and certainly new ground for Marvel to cover in their movies.  I’m interested in seeing how these more hard edged characters work off each other, and the chance at redemption could lead to some very interesting character building.  We’ve gotten to meet these characters in various other films; now we’ll see how they function when they are in the spotlight.  I am especially excited to see David Harbour’s Red Guardian here, since he’s been one of the best new characters that Marvel has introduced in the last couple years, and he and Florence Pugh’s Yelena were easily the best parts of what was an otherwise forgettable Black Widow (2021) movie.  Bringing in Marvel veteran Sebastian Stan as his popular character the Winter Soldier should also offer up some fun character interactivity too.  But it will also be interesting to see how they fare against an enemy as powerful as Sentry (Lewis Pullman) in this story.  And what is the mystery behind the asterix in the title that they’ve been teasing about in the marketing.  These may not be A-list Marvel characters, but as we’ve seen with the Guardians of the Galaxy movies, the B and C list characters can make a movie a lot of fun when they have their own opportunity to shine.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – THE FINAL RECKONING (MAY 23)

In 1996, the first Mission: Impossible movie premiered with it’s star Tom Cruise in top action hero form.   Nearly 30 years and eight movies later, Tom Cruise is still delivering heart pounding action on a grand scale with this long running series.  But, with this new film, there seems to be a drive to the end of the road.  This was originally supposed to be Part II to the previous film, Dead Reckoning Part I (2023), but the filmmakers decided this movie should stand on it’s own, because it may not be the end of the franchise completely, but it’s quite possible that this will be the end for the character of Ethan Hunt.  There’s a finality that’s being presented in this trailer, showcasing all of the events that have led up to now, showing that it’s all been leading to this.  It’s understandable that Tom Cruise may want to step back from doing these movies now considering that he’s well into his sixties and probably can’t pull off the same amazing stunts anymore, though let’s face it, he’s lasted far longer than most in this business.  The only question is, how big of a bang does he want to go out on.  The previous movies had Cruise climbing the outside of the world’s tallest building, hang onto the side of a real plane in the air, piloting a helicopter solo, and in the last film riding off of a cliff on a motorcycle.  Every Mission: Impossible movie has had at least one stand out scene with Tom Cruise really putting himself into the action rather than using a stunt double.  We see some hints of what we might get in this movie, but how well will they stand against all the rest.  You would think that Tom Cruise wants to save the best for last.  Regardless, these movies are always a ton of fun to watch and here’s hoping that this movie at least measures up to all of the movies that have come before it.  The cast that he’s assembled through all the previous movies are all here, plus a few new faces.  I’m especially happy to see Ving Rhames still there because apart from Cruise, he’s the only actor to have appeared in all eight movies.  Whether this is the end, or the beginning of a new era, it will be a hard act to follow for Tom Cruise.  The Mission: Impossible franchise has been his own personal baby for decades and ever the showman, he’ll definitely want us to say goodbye in a grand finale.

ELIO (JUNE 20)

You can always rely on Pixar Animation to deliver some good-nature fun in the middle of the Summer season.  This film was originally supposed to come out last Summer, but was pushed back due to the post-Strike reshuffling of the schedule.  The delay may have worked out in it’s favor, because a year ago, the Pixar brand was not exactly on the strongest footing.  Lightyear (2002) under-performed in theaters, and Elemental (2023) started off poorly before managing to recoup thanks to word of mouth.  Releasing Elio right after this, an original story without a whole lot of per-existing interest from audiences at a time when the Pixar brand couldn’t help to lift it up, would have been a disaster for the already beleaguered studio.  Thankfully, the highly anticipated sequel Inside Out 2 (2024) took its Summer slot instead and gave Pixar a much needed win at the box office.  With a worldwide gross of over $1.5 billion, Inside Out shattered records and re-affirmed that Pixar indeed could still deliver at the box office.  This more positive environment should help Elio out.  It almost certainly won’t perform as huge as Inside Out 2, but it should have a pretty healthy run that will be on par with most of Pixar’s best movies.  It all depends on how well audiences respond to the story.  What they seem to be going for with this new film is a coming of age story with a child who can’t seem to make friends on Earth, so he instead tries to find his place off planet.  The character of Elio himself looks like he’s going to be a lot of fun to watch, especially when he begins to interact with all of the various alien species.  Pixar seems to perform at it’s best when it deals with the emotions of growing up and discovering one’s place in the world.  This is trope that has proved to work well for them in the past with movies like Coco (2017), Luca (2021) and Turning Red (2022).  We’ll see if Elio is able to live up to the other films.  It definitely looks like it’s going to be a visual feast as well, but of course that’s to be expected from Pixar.  It also marks the first solo directorial effort from Coco co-director Adrian Molina, so we know that it’s going to come from a filmmaker capable of making a movie that balances genuine emotion with a lot of fun mixed in.  Let’s hope that this renewed strength in the Pixar brand keeps going with this film and beyond.

MOVIES THAT HAVE ME WORRIED:

LILO & STITCH (MAY 23)

If there is one thing that seems to not be as safe a bet at the box office as it used to, it’s live action remakes of classic animated films.  Disney, which has been leading the charge with these types of movies, enjoyed some major box office success in the past decade remaking all of the major films in their animated canon.  Some like Beauty and the Beast (2017) and The Lion King (2019) even made the studio well over a billion dollars each.  But that box office domination seems to have lessened over time.  The Little Mermaid (2023) performed well domestically, but struggled internationally.  The Lion King prequel Mufasa (2024) also struggled to perform as well as it’s predecessor.  But what has especially thrown cold water on the remake craze at Disney is the disastrous performance of Snow White (2025), which has fallen rapidly off of the box office charts and will likely lose Disney money in the long run.  So, we may be seeing this very divisive trend possibly coming to an end.  Although, that does depend on the remaining remakes that are still in the pipeline.  This summer we are getting a remake of Disney’s late Renaissance era classic Lilo & Stitch (2002), which definitely has a lot to prove in the wake of Snow White.  The one thing that is in this film’s favor is that it makes a lot more sense remaking this film in live action compared to Snow White.  The original Lilo was one of Disney’s more earthbound films, even with all of the sci-fi elements, so it doesn’t take a whole lot to breath it into life in live action.  You don’t need to make lavish sets and costumes; all this movie needs to do is film on location in Hawaii and try to match the vibe of the original film as best it can.  And it does feel like the movie is managing to find that balance.  The CGI Stitch “live action” model does look very adorable, and original film director Chris Sanders returns to do the voice.  Even more importantly, the film seems like it found the right child actor to play Lilo with newcomer Maia Kaeloha.  The one thing that this movie needs to prove more than anything, and some that most of these remakes fail to accomplish, is justify it’s existence.  It has to stand up on it’s own in contrast with the original, and hopefully it can do that and be just as charming as well.

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON (JUNE 13)

Speaking of live action remakes of animated classics, Dreamworks is getting in on the action now.  Considering that Dreamworks hasn’t been around as long as Disney and hasn’t built up the same amount of classic films over that same time, it’s easy to see why they haven’t been jumping on the bandwagon themselves.  But that ends this Summer as they release their first live action remake through their parent studio Universal.  The original How to Train Your Dragon (2010) is undeniably one of the best films that Dreamworks Animation has ever made; probably the best.  And compared with most of the other Dreamworks movies, this one makes a whole lot more sense than others.  You don’t see a lot of sense trying to do Shrek (2001) in live action.  Dragon was a film that did strive for a bit of grittiness and life like texture to it’s story and world.  More than anything, translating the world of the original movie into live action, with it’s very Viking like aesthetic, seems very natural and the remake definitely feels like it’s doing a very one to one translation.  The film even has one of the original voice actors returning, with Gerard Butler reprising his role as King Stoick.  There’s just one thing that might end up hurting the film in the end, which are the dragons themselves.  The problem is that they still look too cartoonish, and it kind of breaks the life like aesthetic that this film is going for.  Toothless, the main dragon in this film, just looks like the same exact model as the character in the original film, just with a different skin texture.  It might have helped to have changed up the look of the character just a bit more.  Honestly, Disney seems to have matched that better in their Lilo & Stitch remake, as their Stitch does look like he fits better in live action.  Maybe the dragon’s animation might work better in the context of the film, but again, it has to justify it’s existence in contrast with the original.  The original film had an epic quality that is hard to replicate, and if they are just doing the same movie over again, it may not work out well because audiences already fell in love with the original.  We’ll have to see if this Dragon can indeed soar on it’s own.

28 YEARS LATER (JUNE 20)

For the most part, there are a lot of exciting things about this movie.  It reunites the original creative team behind the original, Danny Boyle directing from a script by Alex Garland.  It also puts together an impressive cast, with Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Ralph Fiennes.  Plus it delivered one of the best movie trailers in recent memory, with a chilling montage of post-apocalyptic carnage underscored by a disturbing 1915 recording of a recitation of Rudyard Kipling’s powerful anti-war poem “Boots.”  The one thing that may unfortunately work against the film is that the trailer may have been too good.  I don’t know if the movie itself is going to display the same kind of artistic intensity that this trailer has.  Kudos to the marketing team that put this one out, because it’s almost a two minute long art piece within itself.  The re-team of Boyle and Garland, who last worked together on the original 28 Days Later (2002) over twenty years, should still make this movie a well crafted horror action film.  But I feel like the trailer may be misleading us into believing that this movie is going to be something that it isn’t.  I imagine that the real film is going to be more of a slow burn leading to some big set pieces.  The trailer seems to be preparing us for a much more intense experience.  We may still get that, but it’s going to feel very different than what the trailer showed.  Also, I’m pretty sure that Kipling poem appears nowhere in the final film; it’s just something that the marketing department thought would be cool to use in the trailer.  We’ll see how well this performs once it’s in theaters.  It’s a mid Summer horror film, which often has seen a lot of success in past years.  My hope is that the movie does live up to the promise of it’s intense marketing campaign.  It’s hard to get audiences excited in another zombie movie, which is itself a pretty over-saturated and diluted genre.  Perhaps that’s why the trailer had to go as hard as it does; to get us re-interested in this kind of movie again.

THE NAKED GUN (AUGUST 1)

Making this movie would easily be dismissed as sacrilege in most circumstances.  The original Abrahams and Zucker classic is one of the funniest comedies ever made and one of the iconic roles that turned Leslie Nielsen into an unlikely comedy legend.  But, over time both the Naked Gun franchise and the spoof comedy genre died off, so it’s unusual that a studio would want to pick it up again.  The one trying to make an attempt this time is producer Seth MacFarlane of Family Guy and Ted fame.  He clearly has a soft spot for Naked Gun and it’s clearly seen in his style of comedy.  So, it makes sense for him to be the new shepherd for this series.  And to take over the role of Frank Drebin from Leslie Nielsen, it makes sense to go with someone of the same ilk like Liam Neeson.  Neeson already has been within Seth MacFarlane’s circle with cameos in movies like A Million Ways to Die in the West (2014) and Ted 2 (2015).  The only question is, can this movie still be funny?  The spoof genre died out for a reason, because the movies just kept getting less and less funny.  It’s hard to tell how well this movie will pull it off, but the trailer certainly shows that it will be trying for a goofy tone.  It might work out well, given Liam Neeson’s participation here, but it also might be a horrible mess too.  I’ll give the movie this, that O.J. Simpson joke in the trailer is legit very funny.  At least the movie is actually acknowledging the elephant in the room there.  Seth MacFarlane’s team probably understands that there is a lot to prove here, and they clearly have a reverence for the original and will try to do it justice here.  It certainly won’t be anywhere near as inspired as the original film, but if it can still make most of us laugh, than that’s a plus.  The worst thing they could do is make a Naked Gun movie without a single joke that works, and at least from the trailer we see that at least one joke does land.  I worry that we’ll get the former, but I do hope that we’ll at least get something fun and enjoyable

MOVIES TO SKIP:

JURASSIC WORLD: REBIRTH (JULY 2)

Fool me once is how the phrase goes.  Jurassic Park was a one of a kind masterpiece that still holds up over 30 years later.  Since then, the franchise has failed time and again to recapture the magic of that original.  Even Spielberg could do it with The Lost World: Jurassic Park (1997), which is easily his worst film.  Jurassic World (2015) came closest to getting there with a fresh new take on the concept, showing us the park in a fully open to the public capacity, but the two sequels that have come after have squandered any of that good will by getting progressively dumber with each outing.  It seems that Universal Pictures is looking to soft re-boot the franchise again by starting fresh with a new cast.  Gone are the stars of the last three movies, Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard, and instead we get Scarlett Johansson, Jonathan Bailey and Mahershala Ali.  While the cast may be new, the same old action scenes look to be more of the familiar.  The premise of scientists and explorers putting themselves in harms way for the sake of studying these dinosaurs seems to be overplayed at this point.  What happened to the more intriguing concept of dinosaurs being let loose into our world that was established a few movies ago.  That seems to have gone nowhere and based on this movie, which chooses to show dinosaurs yet again confined to a remote island, the past continuity of the franchise really doesn’t seem to matter at all.  This movie is just more cash grabbing by the studio, wringing out every cent they can get from a franchise that has been fruitful for them in the past, but is continually running out of ideas.  For this franchise to survive beyond this, it’s better if the studio looks beyond formula and stop just trying to make the same movie over and over again.

FREAKIER FRIDAY (AUGUST 8)

I understand why Disney would be choosing to make this sequel now.  Lindsay Lohan seems to have gotten her life back together after a few years of scandal and hard living and is seeing a career rebound thanks to her well received holiday movies on Netflix.  And Jamie Lee Curtis is riding high after her Oscar win for the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022).  And they both genuinely want to work together again on something.  Unfortunately, like many other sequels made decades after the fact, this movie is just merely doing the same plot over again, only they are including a new generation.  Chalk this movie up to being not a film for me.  I didn’t much care for the original either, nor the even more original film from the 70’s starring a young Jodie Foster that it was a remake of.  The only thing this movie may have going for it is the report between Lohan and Curtis.  They clearly are invested in doing this film.  But, the era in which this kind of movie could work seems like it has passed.  Another body swap comedy is a hard sell, even to a new generation.  I think it would have served better for Curtis and Lohan to re-team in a movie that was more original.  Fans of the original film may like this one, but as we’ve seen with recent Disney live action legacy sequels like Hocus Pocus 2 (2022) and Disenchanted (2022), it’s hard to pick things back up after a twenty year gap.  Not only have you aged up, but so has your audience, and the newer generation may not hold it in the same regard.  We’ll see if this sequel manages to keep things freaky all these years later.

SMURFS (JULY 18)

And here we have a movie that already just spells disaster.  When the trailer puts it in your face that “Rihanna is Smurfette,” you know that there is nothing else noteworthy to sell about this movie.  It’s not even the first time that there has been an attempt to jumpstart a Smurfs film franchise.  There was the live action adaptation from the early 2010’s and then the all animated one from 2017.  Is there anything they are doing differently for this new one.  Doesn’t look like it.  All that they seem to have done is add a different, Spider-verse style filter on the CGI Smurf models to make them look more hand drawn, and that seems to be it.  Otherwise it’s all the lame jokes that we’ve seen before.  Remember how they would replace a curse word with the word “smurf” to make it feel more edgy while still keeping it G-rated.  That’s pretty much what they are doing again.  Hopefully this movie ends up like the ones before and just fades into obscurity, but then again that may just lead to more re-boots again in the future.

So, there you have my outlook on the upcoming Summer movie season.  This will be an interesting Summer to observe at the movies, because it will be the first true season that’s unaffected by the strikes of 2023.  All of the re-shuffling of the schedule in the wake of the labor walk-outs has resolved, mostly in the last calendar year, so this will be the first Summer in a while that feels like it used to. Or at least that’s the hope.  The thing that still lingers over the industry is the uncertainty in the economy due to the tariffs and trade war going on.  One of Hollywood’s big worries is that the lucrative Chinese market may get cut off, which has been essential towards helping the studios recoup financially with their massive, some would say over-budgeted tentpoles.  China has been moving away from Hollywood in recent years and favoring more of their own domestic cinema instead, but if the trade war makes them even less inclined to play American made films in their country, that could have a devastating effect on the movie business here.  We’ll have to see how things turn out.  Can domestic box office be enough in an economy that is becoming less stable?  It does give Hollywood some hope that Minecraft is performing as well as it is right now, and we’ll see if that translates over the course of the rest of the summer.  There will be the usual standards like Marvel, Pixar and DC, but there are a bunch more films out there that I didn’t mention that could also be big surprises.  It’s going to be an interesting couple of months, and the hope is that outside influences won’t spoil too much of the fun we’ll have at the movies.  I certainly am going to try to have as much fun as I can, and I’ll continue to share my thoughts on these movies in the meantime.  So, have a great Summer season at the movies and let cinema be the thing that helps to lift your spirit through troubled times.

A year’s worth of preparation finally culminates this Sunday in the heart of Hollywood.  Every studio has put up their top tier campaign strategies into effect, but ultimately it all comes down to the final count that is a closely guarded secret in the PricewaterhouseCoopers accounting offices.  It’s Oscar season and the town is at the edge of it’s seat seeing who the Academy will crown as the best that the industry had to offer in the last year.  Unlike the last two years where one movie was clearly going into the ceremony as a clear favorite, Everything Everywhere All at Once in 2022 and Oppenheimer in 2023, this year’s Academy Awards has been a bit of a toss up.  There are several categories where a movie or performance is clearly favored above the rest, but the big one at the end of the night, Best Picture, is still without a front runner.  What has defined this year’s Oscar season, however, is a very contentious negative whisper campaign that has been aimed at taking down some of the perceived front-runners.  In one case in particular, the smear campaigning seems to have work, and for many, it was warranted.  When the nominations were announced a month ago, people were shocked by the strong showing of the Netflix produced Emilia Perez, a musical about a Mexican drug lord who transitions into a woman.  The movie garnered 13 nominations, only one off of the record, and it left many in the industry scratching their heads.  The movie’s critical reception was mixed and audiences were definitely not happy with it either.  Not only that, but the two groups of people that the movie was attempting to represent, Mexicans and the Transgender community, were also condemning the film, stating that it was a gross misrepresentation of them.  So, was this really the front-runner?  Only a few weeks after the nominations were announced, a scandal broke out where old racist tweets from the film’s star Karla Sofia Gascon resurfaced, and it created a backlash that has essentially killed any chance of Emilia Perez taking home the top prize at the Oscars, or much else.  Apart from this, there was even criticism leveled at another Oscar favorite, The Brutalist, because the production team used a bit of AI technology in post-production.  These different criticisms has made this one of the nastier Oscar seasons we’ve seen in quite a while.

Like every year, I will share my thoughts and personal picks for this year’s Academy Awards.  In particular, I will go in depth on the top categories and then do a quick rundown of all the remaining awards.  These are my personal thoughts, and not exactly my recommendations for placing bets; my track record is never flawless.  But, despite how well I do or do not pick the winners, I have made the effort to be as informed as possible, and that includes having seen most of the nominated movies, including all 10 of the Best Picture nominees.  I ever make an effort to see all of the nominated shorts.  So, with all that out of the way, let’s take a look at what to expect at this year’s Academy Awards.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Peter Straughan, Conclave; Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown; Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi, Emilia Perez; RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys; Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John Divine G Whitfield, Sing Sing

The downfall of Emilia Perez is going to be felt across a number of categories in this Oscar ceremony, but even before then I feel it already had a slim chance in this category.  Overall, this is one category where a clear favorite has emerged, and that’s the suspense filled screenplay by Peter Straughan for the movie Conclave.  Based on the book of the same name by Robert Harris, Conclave’s screenplay is the quintessential wordy kind of script that features the kinds of things that Academy voters love; big monologues, intricate plotting, shocking twists, and extensive metaphorical subtext.  Covering the days leading up to the election of a new Pope, the movie shares a lot of parallel theming with the current political state of the world, so the film almost certainly is resonating with politically conscious Academy voters.  But is it deserving of the Oscar.  It’s not undeserving; Peter Straughan’s script is a taut and extremely well crafted piece of writing.  The one negative thing about it is that it isn’t particularly groundbreaking either.  It is a very standard, and well executed adaptation, that serves it’s purpose but doesn’t do anything that really is surprising or groundbreaking.  What really stands apart in this category for me is the screenplay for the prison drama, Sing Sing.  The movie, which shows us a story set around a true dramatic arts program at the Sing Sing prison in New York state, actually featured story input from former inmates who participated in the program.  One of those former inmates, Clarence Maclin, who also has a key role in the film, was nominated for his contribution towards the film’s story, which is an inspiring story in of itself.  Sing Sing is a wonderfully humane film that offers a much more subdued experience in comparison to the more bombastic Conclave, but even still it’s story and screenplay will hit a nerve because of the message behind it, showing the healing power of creating art.  Given it’s win already at the WGA Awards, this is Conclave’s Oscar to lose, and the movie’s recent SAG Award win also puts some more wind in it’s sails here.  But if Sing Sing manages to pull off an upset, it may lead to one of the most emotionally stirring wins we’ve seen in this category for a while.

Who Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave

Who Should Win: Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John Divine G Whitfield, Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David, September 5

Without a doubt, the most stacked category of the night.  If any of these movies had come out in different years, they’d all be front-runners, but alas they have to compete against one another.  If one movie clearly has the least chance of winning, it’s September 5, because it’s the most conventional of the bunch.  Jesse Eisenberg has won a lot of praise for his screenplay for A Real Pain, and it is conceivable that he might come away a winner here, given that he’s already well respected as an actor in the industry.  Coralie Fargeat also has earned a lot of praise too for her screenplay that manages to weave a sharp critique of the unforgiving beauty standards placed on women in the entertainment industry with the genre of body horror.  But ultimately, it comes down to the two movies that are also the front-runners in the Best Picture race.  Just to give you a head’s up, you’ll be seeing me pick The Brutalist a lot here, because it was far an away my favorite movie of the year.  But, my number two favorite movie of the year was Anora, which is also nominated here.  I ultimately want to side with The Brutalist, though the odds right now seem to favor Anora, based on it’s WGA win.  For me, The Brutalist just has so many complex layers to it.  It’s this fascinating deconstruction of the idea of the American dream while also being a fascinating portrait of an artist.  In addition, it also tells you about the history of architecture in the 20th Century, and how art was able to persevere after the atrocities of the War and the Holocaust.  Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay is also incredibly well paced, making the colossal three and a half hour length feel far shorter than it is.  If Sean Baker does in fact win this year, I’ll still be happy.  He’s always been an incredible writer and great observer of human behavior, and Anora is definitely his most assured screenplay to date.  But, for me The Brutalist, crafted by an incredible husband and wife team of Brady and Mona, to me is working on a whole other level.  It’s a tough race, but I’ll be satisfied either way.

Who Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora

Who Should Win: Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees:  Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Yura Borisov, Anora; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Many years you will see one nominee carve out an easy path to victory through a dominant presence in all of the bellwether awards leading up to the Oscars.  The closest thing that we have to a lock at this year’s Awards appears to be Kieran Culkin for his “supporting” role in A Real Pain. He has virtually swept through awards season, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of any loss in that momentum.  If his name isn’t announced on Oscar night, it will be a stunning upset.  But, some would say that his presence here is cheating a bit.  His role in A Real Pain is really a co-lead with writer/director and star Jesse Eisenberg.  They share almost an equal amount of screen time in the movie.  The only reason it seems that Kieran was designated for the supporting actor category is because the studio Searchlight Pictures thought he would have a better shot at winning there, and it looks like they’re right.  And it’s not an undeserved win; he definitely is a standout in A Real Pain, and is a big part of why that movie is so beloved.  And he’s been a longtime fixture in Hollywood, having acted in movies since he was a child, alongside his famous older brother Macaulay Culkin.  But, for me, I feel like the more traditionally supporting performances of the nominees should be more deserving of the honor.  It was great to see Yura Borisov get recognized for his scene-stealing turn in Anora.  Jeremy Strong’s incredible performance as shadowy lawyer Roy Cohn in The Apprentice was also incredible, and the fact that he’s going up against his Succession co-star Kieran also adds an interesting wrinkle into this race.  But, for me, the performance Guy Pearce delivered in The Brutalist stands out above the rest.  Pearce, who surprising is nominated for the first time despite his active presence in Hollywood for decades, delivers a tour de force as a hot tempered business tycoon who both elevates and tortures Adrian Brody’s genius architect in the film.  His ability to balance the highs and lows of that character and making him a fully rounded personality in a film where he could have easily turned into archetype makes his performance extra special in the film.  So, Kieran Culkin is almost certainly going to win, but if someone else were to upset I would definitely want it to be Guy Pearce, which would certainly be a long overdue honor.

Who Will Win:  Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Who Should Win:  Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

If there has been anyone who has managed to escape the implosion of Emilia Perez’s disastrous Oscar season, it’s been Zoe Saldana.  Zoe has still been cleaning up in all of the other ceremonies this Awards season, and it looks like she is also a lock for the Oscar, though maybe not quite as strong as Kieran in the Supporting Actor race.  The only question mark is how the Emilia Perez backlash is hitting with the Academy voters.  Are they going to be as forgiving as the other Awards have.  On the surface, her performance certainly has all of the hallmarks of an Oscar winning role.  She not only has to span a wide range of emotions through her performance, but she’s also singing throughout the film (in Spanish!) and dancing with some often complex choreography involved.  Zoe’s background in ballet certainly helped in this regard, and despite the movie receiving a lukewarm reception from audiences and critics, her performance has been almost universally praised.  The other problem with her nomination, though, is that it is yet another co-lead role masquerading as a supporting performance.  It could be argued that the film actually centers more around her character than it does the titular Emilia Perez.  For me, I do think Zoe is deserving of the recognition, but her performance is not as impressive as some of the others.  The Oscars are unlikely to favor Ariana Grande’s performance as Glinda in Wicked, though she was very delightful in her hilarious scene-stealing performance in the blockbuster.  Isabella Rossellini brings a great sense of veteran aura to this category, but her excellent performance in Conclave is extremely brief (less than 7 total minutes).  And Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown is solid, but not particularly groundbreaking.  Once again, I hold up everything from The Brutalist in highest regard, and that includes Felicity Jones’ performance as the architect’s wife.  Her performance, like Adrian Brody’s and Guy Pearce’s works so magnificently with the operatic heights that the film sets to achieve, especially with the climatic confrontation near the movie’s end which is Felicity’s finest moment in the film.  With Zoe being an already beloved fixture in Hollywood, especially after being a part of major franchises like Guardians of the Galaxy and Avatar, it seems like the industry is ready to give her some well earned laurels, but a Felicity Jones upset would be ideal too.

Who Will Win:  Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Who Should Win:  Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

BEST ACTOR

Nominees:  Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Adrian Brody, The Brutalist; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

A week ago, I would’ve thought that this was going to be yet another race defined by a clear front-runner.  But a surprise upset in the Best Actor race at the SAG Awards has suddenly made this category a lot more suspenseful.  Adrian Brody has looked for a while to be the favorite here with his masterful turn as architect Laszlow Toth in The Brutalist, a man driven to create a great work of art at great cost to himself.  His performance is so multilayered and unforgettable that he certainly looked like he was gearing up for an easy win at this year’s Academy Awards.  But last weekend, the Oscar race was shaken up by Timothee Chalamet picking up the SAG award for his performance as musician Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown.  It’s been a strong year for Chalamet all around, starting off with the strong holiday box office hold for his musical Wonka (2023), and then the colossal success of Dune: Part Two (2024) in the spring, and then finally culminating with the fruitful awards season release of A Complete Unknown.  Hollywood certainly loves it when an actor buries themselves into a performance as another famous celebrity, and Chalamet’s performance is certainly a strong one; points for being the rare actor in a musical biopic that does his own singing.  But, does he have enough momentum to beat Adrian Brody, the presumptive favorite.  The one negative that Brody has against him is that he’s the only one in this category that’s already won before, back in 2002 for The Pianist, becoming the youngest winner of the award to date.  Ironically, Timothee Chalamet could take that record himself this year, at his expense.  It’s all going to come down to these two, despite some exceptional performances from the other nominees; and bravo to the Academy for having the guts to nominate Sebastian Stan for his unflattering but complex portrayal of Trump.  Chalamet may be rising late, but I still see Adrian Brody winning his second Oscar here for a performance that truly stands as one of the most monumental seen on screen in a long while.  Given that the Academy voting closed days before Chalamet’s upset SAG win gives me a feeling that Brody’s victory may still be an inevitability, but who knows.

Who Will Win:  Adrian Brody, The Brutalist

Who Should Win:  Adrian Brody, The Brutalist

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Mikey Madison, Anora; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here; Demi Moore, The Substance;  Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

This is without a doubt the most contested race of the evening, with two and maybe even three possible winners that could come away with the award on Oscar night.  First off, history was made this year with Karla Sofia Gascon becoming the first out transgender performer ever to be nominated for an Academy Award.  And that’s the only good thing I’ll say about her nomination, because she deserves no other praise given what the scandal has dug up.  Cynthia Erivo is justly praised for her incredible acting and singing as Elphaba in Wicked, though it’s unlikely going to be her night as well.  The other three performances are the ones that still have a good shot.  For me, the performance of the year belonged to Mieky Madison for her star-making role in Anora.  She is a force of nature in that film, and it’s been pleasing to see her star rise because of this movie.  After playing bit parts in movies like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019) and Scream (2022), she took the opportunity to finally carry a movie in the lead and she ran with it.  Her character Ani is without a doubt my favorite from the last year, being both hilarious and at the same time real and grounded in a tragic sense.  Madison has done fairly well throughout awards season, picking up the BAFTA and Independent Spirit awards along the way.  But, she has to contend with industry veteran Demi Moore in what has been seen as a big comeback role for the former “Brat Pack” icon.  Moore finally achieved her first Oscar nomination after a nearly fifty year career in the movies.  It’s all the more remarkable that she’s nominated because The Substance is a fairly hardcore body horror movie that’s also sharply critical of the entertainment industry.  The fact that the Academy is overlooking all of that is a testament to the strength of Demi’s performance.  It seems likely that this is Demi Moore’s year, mainly because she’s a beloved fixture in Hollywood with a lot of friends in the Academy, and that this is a long overdue acknowledgement of her career achievements.  But, an upset win from Mikey Madison would certainly please me as well.  And it is possible that surprise Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres may also steal away a win from both of them for her highly praised performance in I’m Still Here.

Who Will Win:  Demi Moore, The Substance

Who Should Win:  Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:  Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez; Sean Baker, Anora; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

This is another race that comes down to two likely choices, and they both just happen to be the directors of my two favorite movies of the year.  Brady Corbet delivered something of a miracle this year with The Brutalist, a monumental American epic with a three and a half hour run time that feels a fraction of that length and was also filmed on a minuscule $10 million budget.  Naturally, that impressive feat of direction would make him a runaway favorite here, but his competition is the equally impressive work done by Sean Baker on his film Anora.  Baker has been a favorite in independent film for a long time, with he beautiful Neo-realist portraits of people on the fringes of American society.  Anora is his most assured feat of direction yet; a complex story of rags to riches and back to rags that runs the gamut of tones, while at the same time expertly handling the escalating amount of absurdity that his characters go through.  After an already impressive body of work built up over the last decade, it seems that the Academy is ready to give Baker his due respect as a filmmaker.  Baker has already won the key bellwether honor of the DGA Award leading up to the Oscars; a precursor award that almost always goes to the eventual winner.  But it’s not always 100%.  Corbet would indeed be the one and only other nominee that could steal away the Best Director honor from Baker.  You look at a movie like The Brutalist, and it is a movie that exemplifies capital “D” directing.  It’s is tough choice to make, but I think that if we see an indication of Anora having a really good night if it picks up the Screenplay and Editing awards, it pretty much cements Sean Baker’s front runner status and will inevitably see him taking the top honor as well.  And it would be well deserved too.  I’ve been a fan of Sean Baker’s work since the amazing The Florida Project (2017).  Seeing him join the ranks of Best Director winners would be a great result to see, but I would also like that for Brady Corbet as well.  The actor turned director may only be on his third film, but what an impressive film it is, and one that I can see becoming a celebrated masterpiece years from now regardless of what happens at the Oscars.  The DGA honor tells me Sean Baker has a slight edge, but Corbet has a good chance to upset.

Who Will Win:  Sean Baker, Anora

Who Should Win:  Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: A Complete Unkonwn; Anora; The Brutalist; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Perez; I’m Still Here; Nickel Boys; The Substance; Wicked

This is without a doubt one of the most contentious Best Picture races we have seen in years.  There’s no dominant front runner like Everything Everywhere All at Once or Oppenheimer.  This year, it is very much up for grabs from a variety of films in this category.  One thing is clear, despite it’s dominant showing in the nominations, Emilia Perez’s chances of winning the top prize are almost 0 the weeks of scandal it has gone through; and that’s probably a relief to most people out there.  Wicked and Dune: Part Two were definitely the blockbusters that were most deserving of a nomination from last year, but that’s about as close as they’ll get.  The Substance and I’m Still Here have better odds in other races, namely Best Actress and International Film respectively, and Nickel Boys is here for it’s uniqueness, but perhaps too small to get noticed beyond that.  And musical biopics have always fared better in acting categories, so that keeps it from the top as well, though it depends on how many Bob Dylan fans are in the Academy.  That leaves three movies with a very strong shot at collecting the top Prize.  With it’s recent wins at the BAFTA and SAG awards, Edward Berger’s Conclave seems to have picked up a bit of momentum late into the race.  Of the top of the field nominees, Conclave is the most conventional Oscar bait of the bunch, though it is still a fairly good movie worthy of being here.  If the Academy is looking to play things safe, this is the movie that would benefit; a good old fashioned, lavish studio made drama for mass audiences.   But. as we’ve seen in recent years, the Academy has been willing to honor outsiders as well.  That’s why, like Best Director, this comes down to a showdown between The Brutalist and Anora.  Both have numerous accolades built up already.  If Anora wins, it will be only the second Palme d’Or winner from Cannes to ever make it to a Best Picture win, the first being Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite (2019).  And Corbet also won the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival for his direction, as well as a Golden Globe.  It’s a tight race, but with the wins at the DGA, PGA and WGA, I feel like Anora has the edge.  Certainly, because it was my favorite movie of the year, I would like to see The Brutalist win, but since Anora was my second favorite, I’ll be very happy to see it win the night as well.

What Will Win:  Anora

What Should Win:  The Brutalist

And here is my quick rundown of all the remaining categories with my picks to win in each:

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist; Best Film Editing: The Brutalist; Best Production Design: Wicked; Best Costume Design: Wicked; Best Sound: A Complete Unknown; Best Make-up and Hairstyling: The Substance; Best Original Score: The Brutalist; Best Original Song: “El Mal” from Emilia Perez; Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two; Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land; Best Documentary Short: Incident; Best Animated Feature: Flow; Best Animated Short: Magic Candies; Best Live Action Short: A Lien; Best International Feature: I’m Still Here

The fact that we are going into this Oscar ceremony without a clear front-runner should make things a bit suspenseful for this year’s show.  We may get an indication of who benefited from the last minute momentum through some of the earlier categories, but this may also be one of those Oscar years where the Academy likes to spread the wealth, and the inevitable Best Picture winner will likely only be the victor with one or two other awards.  A lot of the time, I tend to feel better when my favorite movie of the year has little chance of winning, because then I’m not left heartbroken.  But this year is interesting because it’s my two favorite films at the top.  If Anora comes away victorious, it will be the second year in a row where my runner up favorite wins Best Picture; last year’s being Oppenheimer of course.  I doubt we’ll see the least deserving film of the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez, win the big award, but then again this is the same Academy that gave that honor to Green Book (2018) six years ago.  I think we’re pretty safe from an embarrassing, tone deaf move like that from the Academy since there are so many strong contenders that have risen to the top.  One thing for certain is that this is going to be a much different ceremony than what we’ve seen in past years.  Because of the wildfires that devastated the townships Pacific Palisades and Altadena, the Academy Awards is planning to hold a more subdued ceremony in respect for those who lost their homes; including many who work within the industry itself.  There will many acknowledgements of the brave work done by the firefighters and first responders who helped to save lives in the tragedy, and a plea to those watching at home to help support those who still need help putting their lives together.  I hope the show is able to balance this serious tragedy with the pomp and pageantry that the Academy Awards usually shows.  One thing I know for certain is that Conan O’Brien will deliver a fun and energetic atmosphere as well in his first hosting gig.  O’Brien’s ability to put on a good show no matter the circumstance has always been one of his strengths, and I’m excited to see what he does on Oscar night.  So, with all that said, I hope my choices pan out well this year.  I feel like Anora is the movie to beat at this moment, but it could definitely be a nail-biter by the end.  So, let’s hope for a good Oscar ceremony this year, and hopefully another good year at the movies leading up to the next one.