
Here’s an interesting case study about how Hollywood, and in particular Academy voters, make their choices come Awards season. It’s 1982 at the 54th Academy Awards. It was a year that perfectly summed up the transition between old Hollywood and the new. The movie On Golden Pond won two of the elder icons of the industry their final Oscar wins for Best Actor and Actress; the only one ever for Henry Fonda and the fourth for Kathrine Hepburn. At the same time, one of Hollywood’s most celebrated new directors, Steven Spielberg, was enjoying his resurgence with the big hit Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), itself a nominee for Best Picture. But if there was any film that looked like a certainty for the top award at that year’s ceremony, it was the epic historical drama Reds (1981). Warren Beatty was a firmly established leading man by the time he Directed and Produced this movie biopic about American Communist John Reed and his chronicling of the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, but his rise was certainly a by product of the shifting tide in Hollywood. He was a representative of that transition in the industry, having started under the old Hollywood system and becoming a central figure of the new Hollywood that came up afterwards. Reds was only his second film as a director after Heaven Can Wait (1978), and it was ambitious to say the least. A sprawling 3 hour and 17 minute epic with an all star cast that included Beatty as well as Diane Keaton and Jack Nicholson. It was the kind of historical drama that Hollywood often fawns over, and it went into the Oscar season as a heavy favorite. The movie picked up many Awards on Oscar night, including one for Warren Beatty for Best Director, though he lost out on Actor and Screenplay. But, Best Director almost always indicates that Best Picture is in the bag as well. But to everyone’s surprise, and perhaps most of all to Warren Beatty’s, Reds ended up losing Best Picture that year. And the victor was one that few saw coming; a little British movie about Olympic track runners called Chariots of Fire (1981).
The loss of Best Picture for Reds may have made sense if a movie like On Golden Pond or even Raiders of the Lost Ark had gotten it instead, but Chariots of Fire? When stacked up against these juggernaut films, Chariots seems trivial, and yet it managed to pull off the upset. It’s not quite the most egregious upset in Oscar history; no Crash (2005) or Green Book (2018) here. Chariots was a generally well liked movie by both critics and audiences alike, and that may have been key to it’s last minute victory. There are a lot of political factors that go into play leading up to Oscar night. There are Academy voters that certainly put a lot of thought into their selections, but there are also Academy voters that rarely see any of the nominated movies, and their choices are purely made on just vibes alone. Sometimes, an Academy voters pick for Best Picture may have been the only nominated movie that they had seen that year. It’s not necessarily about Academy voters being lazy; a lot of them are still actively working in the industry so it’s difficult to find the time to actually watch all the nominated movies. So, to still be a participating Academy voter, a lot of them purely go by what their gut tells them, and this can sometimes go against what the prevailing winds say about who’s out in front in the race for Oscar. There’s also the factor of the ranked choice voting system that is used to tally votes in the Best Picture race. This is where things can get complicated, because Oscar favorites can rise and fall based on the consensus of how well they are liked by the voters. However, the 1982 Oscars didn’t have that voting system in place. Back then, it was a purely decided by popular vote, which made the upset all the more impressive. But, why Chariots of Fire. It was not a particularly huge success at the box office, and while it was liked by audiences it wasn’t exactly loved either. Really, the only remarkable thing about it was the Vangelis musical score, with it’s groundbreaking use of electronic synth rhythms, which of course won an Oscar itself. What helped to carry Chariots of Fire across the Oscar finish line more than anything was that it was a feel good movie, and that has indeed been a winning formula in most Oscar seasons.
Reds was an ambitiously assembled film with grand vision and a lot of passion. There’s no denying that Warren Beatty did an amazing job directing the film and he certainly deserved that Oscar. But, it’s a 3 hour epic with a tragic ending, the death of it’s main hero after a steep decline in both his health and well-being. While Academy voters may be impressed with the technical aspects of the movie, they just don’t seem to want to sit through 3 hours if the endpoint is a tragedy. Like regular audiences, Academy members like rousing stories of over-coming adversity, and that’s what Chariots of Fire represented. It was not just a movie about overcoming prejudice, but also a sports flick about underdogs competing in the Olympics. What it did, and what Reds failed to do, was leave the audience uplifted as the credits rolled. Of course there was also the political environment at the time, with Warren Beatty’s unapologetic favorable portrayal of a Communist leader in American history perhaps not going over too well with Academy voters during the ultra conservative Reagan years. Chariots of Fire, by being a safer, less political film made it a less controversial choice. While this held true in the year 1982, it’s also been evident in many other years throughout Oscar history. The Academy Awards are often more defined as a snapshot of each year on it’s road throughout history rather than a indicator of the direction of the industry as a whole. Each year the studios submit what they think is their best shot at the Oscars and then those movies are up to a vote. There are quite a few movies that indeed have withstood the test of time, and their Oscar wins are just another jewel in their crowns. But there are plenty of Oscar wins that only make sense in the context of their respective years and have aged very poorly over time. And the common thing that a lot of those Oscar wins that have aged poorly is that they were the safe choice.
Perhaps the most famous example of the Oscars missing the mark is the year when How Green Was My Valley (1941) beat out Citizen Kane (1941) for Best Picture. One of the movies was a beautifully made drama from one of Hollywood’s most celebrated directors, and the other would go on to be considered the Greatest American Movie of all time. How Green Was My Valley had all the things that the Academy valued; John Ford behind the camera, lavish production values and heartfelt performances from established actors. Orson Welles came into Hollywood as a bit of an outsider and he was using his film Citizen Kane to break down many long held traditions in filmmaking, as well as taking aim at some powerful targets. It’s very well known that Welles based his Charles Foster Kane character after William Randolph Hearst, the newspaper magnate and one of the most powerful men in the whole of America as well as in Hollywood. On that Oscar night, a loss for Citizen Kane in the Best Picture category may not have been seen as that shocking given that Welles made a pretty powerful enemy with his unflattering parody of the vindictive Hearst. But, through the arc of time, Citizen Kane‘s profile has only improved while How Green Was My Valley has been almost completely forgotten. Safe choices don’t always pan out beyond their moment in time. Over the years, the greatest movies manage to find their audience and it’s often because they were movies that took chances and moved the needle in Hollywood towards a different direction. There are plenty of other times when movies with darker themes missed out on the Oscars and have gone on to become heralded as masterpieces; Vertigo (1958), Do the Right Thing (1989), and The Matrix (1999) to name a few. They all had the disadvantage of being a little harsh for their time, but even if Academy voters turn a blind eye to them, the audiences will ultimately have the final say determining their place in history.
But even darker themed movies can somehow push through to win Best Picture at the Oscars. It seems that the best way to do it is to be so good that your movie cannot be ignored, even if it is a bit of a downer. One of the best examples of this is The Silence of the Lambs (1991). The Jonathan Demme masterpiece managed to defy all expectations and sweep through the Oscars despite it’s dark and often grisly subject matter. The Academy overlooked all that, even though there were more traditional and safer alternatives that year at the Oscars, like The Prince of Tides (1991), JFK (1991) and Beauty and the Beast (1991). But Lambs managed to beat them all because it was just that good, and time has only proven the Academy right in their decision as the movie is still viewed as a masterpiece 35 years later. And it’s a story involving cannibalism and torture where even after the case is solved, a mad serial killer is still on the loose by the end. Sometimes these movies do luck out by running the table in a year with little competition, but great movies can still win at the Oscars even with uncompromising elements to their stories. Sometimes a movie can win the Oscar with darker themes at it’s center if they do offer that little glimpse of hope at the end. Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List (1993) is one of harshest movies ever put on screen with it’s unvarnished look at the horrors of the Holocaust, and yet it offers hope in the end through the inspiring story of how so many Jews’ lives were spared thanks to the efforts of the movie’s main subject, businessman Oskar Schindler. Spielberg’s movie is a gut punch, but you don’t leave the movie feeling awful in the end. Even a movie that ends on a downer, like Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer (2023) where it’s main character stresses over how he’s responsible for a nuclear arms race, still had enough moments of triumph beforehand that make the journey to that dark moment still feel worthwhile. There are certainly these exceptions that prove it’s possible to win over the Academy even when your movie is not a pleasant watch all the way through and it seems that the only way it works is if the movie is exceptionally good.
But, it all depends on the mood of the Academy voters as well. The voting body of the Academy is made up of mostly actors and also includes industry professionals as well as people of special distinction by the Academy. Just like any other election, campaigning is a crucial part of the process in voting for the Academy Awards. This includes many different tactics like trade ads and special functions to draw awareness to a film, as well as Academy screenings throughout the season. But, like I stated earlier, some Academy members don’t have the time to see everything, so they’ll sometimes vote based on vibes or defer to their friends and staff over what they think will be the right choice. When the span of awareness is limited, what usually ends up happening is that the movie that has the most appeal to the broadest audience possible ends up winning in the end. A great recent example was in 2022, when the “feel good” movie CODA (2021) picked up Best Picture over the more nihilistic The Power of the Dog (2021). While objectively looking at both movies, The Power of the Dog was the more impressively assembled film, with great cinematography and standout performances delivering a monumental cinematic experience; but it was also bleak and unforgiving as well. CODA on the other hand was very unassuming and low budget, but it had heart and warmth to it. It’s not surprising that CODA appealed to an Academy that was in need of a pick-me-up after the harsh Covid lockdown year prior, though Power of the Dog’s Jane Campion still came away with a Directing Oscar. When Academy voters are low on awareness of the movies to choose from, they often go with the movie that makes them the happiest. It’s where the ranked choice voting works the most in favor of “Feel Good” movies. It’s a voting body motivated by feelings more than by technical merits. This can sometimes shed a light on some of the inherent biases found in the Academy too. It was reported that a lot of Academy voters admitted to not having seen the movie 12 Years a Slave (2013), but they still voted for it as Best Picture because they felt it’s message was important. They’re not wrong to feel that way, but they would’ve been better able to back up their claim of the movie’s importance if they had actually seen the movie and judged it on that. Unfortunately, it’s that lack of insight that can sometimes cause the Academy to be out of lockstep with the rest of the audience when it comes to these movies.
So, looking at this year’s Academy Awards, does this “Feel Good” formula still apply. As of this writing a couple weeks prior to the Academy Awards of 2026, the front-runner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another (2025). It’s not too surprising, given that it’s not exactly a harsh movie to watch, often filled with enough levity to keep things entertaining throughout. But, it’s also a movie that doesn’t pull it’s punches either, being shockingly prescient with today’s headlines involving authoritarian acts by the government and the everyday resistance that the citizens of this country are trying to enact to fight back against oppression. It’s legacy over time will be interesting to watch, but for right now the movie is connecting at the right time by being a dark mirror of our current world. But, even with it’s darker elements, it still has a story that comes across as a “feel good” one. It’s a traditional good vs. evil storyline, where the bad guy loses and the good guys win, even if the larger backdrop of the movie’s setting still paints a bleak picture. The micro, intimate main plot gives us that traditional story of triumph, as Leonardo DiCaprio’s father figure character does reunite with his daughter by movie’s end. One Battle After Another seems unique in this way amidst the field it’s up against in the Best Picture race. It’s main competition, Sinners (2025), has a lot of incredible moments in it, but it’s also a movie where all but one of the main characters is either dead at the end or turned into a vampire. Movies like Sentimental Value (2025) and Hamnet (2025) spend most of their run times dealing with characters processing their grief. And then there’s also Marty Supreme (2025), which is a story of triumph for the worst kind of person in the world. From the looks of it, the odds favor One Battle After Another because it does come the closest to matching that “feel good” formula, but this race is still undecided for now. In the end, it helps to be the most entertaining of the nominated films, because it leaves the best final impression. It may not be a great indicator of how well the movie might age over time, but it certainly makes a difference when the choice needs to be made in the moment by Academy voters.
Movies by design are meant to be appealing; otherwise what’s the point in making them. The best movies take risks, and sometimes that can be enough to gain the attention of the Academy voters when they are choosing Best Picture. But most of the time, what matters in the moment is how this relatively small voting block feels while they watch a movie. For some Academy members it’s what matters most. Back in 2012, actor and singer Meat Loaf (who was an active Academy member with voting privileges) confessed that he voted for the Steven Spielberg movie War Horse (2011) for Best Picture purely because it was the movie that made him cry that year. If that was the determining factor for him, then all the power to him; at least he voted for a movie he had watched. But the bigger problem is disengagement from the voting members of the Academy, where they just go by vibes rather than making educated choices based on what they watched. There may have been a variety of factors that could’ve contributed to Warren Beatty losing out on Best Picture to Chariots of Fire; his political stances, the entrenchment of old Hollywood in the Academy, the fact that Warren may have burned a few bridges over the years to get where he was at the time. The judgement over time is that the Academy was ultimately making the safe choice that year and picked the least controversial film in the pack. What Warren also represented (the outspoken voice of New Hollywood) also may have ruffled a few old time Academy members as well. Thankfully, requirements for Academy membership has changed, and the Academy now has a broader, more diverse voting body than it did decades ago. This has helped lead to more risk taking movies winning Best Picture, such as Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (2022) and Anora (2024), but even still, those were movies with that were crowd-pleasing in the end, with a lot of “feel good” elements. Unless you are one of the best movies ever made, you’ll be all but forgotten if you don’t leave a positive impression on your audience. Happy Academy voters are generous Academy voters, and in the nearly century long history of the Academy Awards, this has been the formula that has most often brought home the gold.


