We’ve come to it at last, and much later in the year than usual. The Super Bowl for movie nerds; an event that can either lead to great triumph or great disappointment. The Oscars culminates a year’s worth of anticipation, waiting to see who will be honored for their work in the past year. This year’s Oscar race has also been a particularly groundbreaking one. It started off with the record-shattering 16 nominations for Ryan Coogler’s genre bending Sinners (2025). The previous record was 14, held in a three way tie by All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997), and La La Land (2016), and in the case of two of those, that then record number led to Best Picture wins. No matter what happens on Oscar night, Sinners will still stand alone for quite a while as the most nominated movie in the history of the Oscars, which is quite something for a movie with vampires in it. But, as we saw with last year’s most nominated film, Emilia Perez (2024), having the most nominations in a given year doesn’t always guarantee a Best Picture win. Though it won’t flame out in controversy like Emilia Perez did, Sinners also hasn’t run in this race as a front runner either. The odds this year have favored Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, giving the veteran filmmaker his best shot at getting the top prize thus far. One Battle does have a lot going for it; impressive production values, an all-star cast (many of whom got nominated alongside the movie), and a groundswell of support for a filmmaker who many believe is overdue. It’s also won many of the precursor awards, so it’s still looking like a clear front-runner. But, Sinners seems to be making a late charge, especially with an upset victory at the SAG-AFTRA Actor Awards. What we know right now is that the night will belong to either of these juggernauts, as few others have made much buzz in the Best Picture race. But, it should make for one of the most exciting Oscars in a while, because it looks like the race to Best Picture is very much coming down to the wire.
As with every year, I will be sharing my thoughts and personal picks for this year’s Oscars. The top categories are the ones that I go into the most depth with; sharing how I think each category will go and explaining why I am making my pick. I follow the Awards season pretty closely, so I come to this with an educated understanding of the nominees. One of my goals each year is to see every single one of the Best Picture nominees, and in a theater setting no less. I’m happy to say that I accomplished that goal again this year; yes, even with the Netflix ones. While I try my best to make a well informed choice, I am also never 100% correct on everything. The Oscars have been known to throw a few surprises our way. This year’s Oscars may in fact be one of the most unpredictable ever, given how so few categories have runaway favorites. So, take my predictions as they are, and we’ll see how well I guess the winners. Of course, I also share my personal picks alongside who I believe will win, just to show how I would’ve voted on this year’s ballot. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at my picks for the 2026 Academy Awards.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Will Tracy, Bugonia; Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein; Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
Both Screenplay categories have some pretty clear front runners this year, but it is worth taking a look at all the nominees, given that it was a strong year for writers. Both of the screenplays for Hamnet and Train Dreams did a fine job of adapting their literary sources, with Maggie O’Farrell getting to adapt her own novel alongside director Chloe Zhao for Hamnet. Will Tracy’s screenplay for Bugonia took the concept from an obscure Korean film, and brilliantly crafted it into a surreal exploration of conspiracy theory culture in America. And you also have to commend Guillermo Del Toro for finding new territory to cover in Mary Shelley’s iconic 200 year old story of Frankenstein and his monster; a story that has been adapted countless times before. But, of all the nominees in this category, the easy favorite is Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. To say that it is loosely based on the Thomas Pynchon novel Vineland is an understatement. Sure, Anderson uses enough of Pynchon’s premise to make this screenplay qualify as being adapted, but pretty much everything else is pure PTA. For a filmmaker whose writing credits are just as impressive as his directorial ones, his One Battle screenplay is indeed among his best work. He managed to create a perfectly taut thriller with a fair amount of humor thrown in to keep things bouncy. A particular highlight of this screenplay is the increasingly frustrated interactions Leonardo DiCaprio’s Bob Ferguson has with the underground rebellion’s hotline, which is some of the funniest character writing that I have seen in any movie in a while. The satire of the screenplay is also particularly sharp and, might I add, prescient, which is something that may be influencing the voters in this category. The fact that it and the front runner in the next category have both come away with WGA awards pretty much secures a victory her for Paul Thomas Anderson, who shockingly has never won before. That’ll change this year for sure, and will be absolutely deserved as well.
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon; Jafar Panahi and Nader Saeivar, It Was Just an Accident; Josh Safie and Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Ryan Coogler, Sinners
One of the interesting things about this category is the strong representation of international films in the original screenplay category. Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in particular got a hefty 9 nominations this year, with most of his cast all securing acting nods. His tender and emotional script is the kind of thing that actors yearn for, as it gives them a great opportunity to showcase some raw emotions on screen. Jafar Panahi getting nominated here is also a big deal, given that his native country Iran is currently being targeted by U.S. forces in the early stages of a war. He already has a reputation for being one of the boldest filmmakers in the world, practicing his craft of filmmaking even in defiance of the authoritarian theocratic regime in Iran, and he certainly deserves to be honored. In any other year, he would’ve been a heavy favorite here. But, this category belongs to the movie that received the most nominations ever at the Oscars. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is one of the boldest big swings to come out of a major studio in many years; a genre bending portrayal of black culture in the Deep South during the Great Depression, and combining it with an attack from vampires. In less capable hands, this movie would’ve been a mess, but Ryan Coogler manages to bring it all together in a brilliantly crafted story that transports you into it’s world and takes you for a ride. It’s one of the reasons why One Battle After Another and Sinners are out in front of the pack at this year’s Oscars; because they are seminal works that could’ve only come from these two distinctive filmmakers. No one makes a movie like Ryan Coogler, just as no one makes a movie like Paul Thomas Anderson. These are movies that needed the visionary minds of their creators to become a reality, and we have two genuine movies that stand alone in their field. The great thing about Coogler’s script is just how well it weaves it’s many different threads together; the story of a preacher’s son learning to use his gift of music to bring people together, and how it may sometimes attract the wrong kind of people too. It’s combination of true cultural history with supernatural vampirism is nothing short of magical, and Coogler will earn a well deserved Oscar becuase of that.
Who Will Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Who Should Win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimenal Value; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, Sinners
This is perhaps the most up in the air category at this year’s Oscars, because the winners thus far have been all over the place. Stellan Skarsgard won the Golden Globe, Jacob Elordi the Critics Choice Award, and Sean Penn won the Actors Award. This is going to be one of those that goes down to the wire, because there is definitely no front runner here. Sean Penn certainly has momentum off of that Actor Award from SAG-AFTRA, but he is also a two time past winner and he may lose some votes in competition with his co-star Benicio Del Toro. It’s also a interesting year where you have the hot newcomer, Jacob Elordi, going up against a field full of established veterans. Elordi did a fantastic job bringing Frankenstein’s creature to life and giving him a soulful character; something that probably wasn’t easy under full body make-up. It’s also thrilling to see two long time journeyman actors like Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo finally get their first nomination after decades of esteemed work. Lindo’s nomination was particularly surprising, given that many people thought it was going to go to Miles Canton, Lindo’s much younger co-star from Sinners. I would definitely love to see either one of these veterans win the Award on Oscar night, but I do have a clear personal favorite here, and it’s Sean Penn. Penn’s performance as Col. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another was perhaps my favorite performance across all categories this year. He delivered a truly wild and unhinged performance that was easily the highlight of the movie for me, and it’s truly remarkable that he was able to steal the movie away even with an ensemble as strong as this movie had. Can he pull out a win. The weird scenario that I see playing out is that all the veterans may end up cancelling each other out, and Jacob Elordi being the newcomer may steal away a win, similar to how Adrian Brody beat out a field of established veterans in his 2003 win for The Pianist (2002). Then again, Delroy could sneak in and win depending on how big a night Sinners is having. Anything is possible at this point, and a win for any one in this category would be well deserved. Elordi may have a slight advantage, but for me it’s Sean Penn that deserves it the most.
Who Will Win: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Who Should Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
This may be another one of those wide open races like the Supporting Actor category, but recent weeks have helped to thrust a potential front-runner in the race. Amy Madigan has been charming her way through the Oscar race, with the industry loving her breakout role in the surprise horror hit Weapons. Madigan’s performance as the diabolical witch Gladys in the movie was one of the reasons why the movie became such a big hit, with people instantly turning her character into a new horror movie icon. Madigan has been a long established veteran in Hollywood, going all the way back to movies like Streets of Fire (1984) and Field of Dreams (1989), and Hollywood loves a good comeback story, with this being one of her most high profile roles in many years. And it’s an Award that would be well deserved too. Of all the nominees in this category, she’s the one that truly defines the movie that she’s in. Weapons quite simply wouldn’t have worked as well as it did had she not been so perfect for the role. Does that make her the front runner. For the most part, she is definitely the favorite, but there are other contenders who could possibly claim victory here too. I don’t think either of the first time nominees for Sentimental Value have much of a chance here, and they are like to cancel each other out. The other spoilers could rise and fall depending on how their respective movies do. If One Battle After Another is having a strong night, it may be likely that Teyana Taylor wins, despite her character getting the least amount of screen time in this category. Wunmi Mosaku could also win if Sinners is having a big night. In Taylor’s case, she gets the award for having the best character name of the year; Perfidia Beverly Hills. It’s a strong category all around, but I feel that Amy Madigan has the edge here. She’s a veteran actor getting her long overdue recognition in a performance that will likely go down as a definitive one in the horror genre. But, it’s a category that we may also see an upset win possibly happen, depending on the amount of support for the Best Picture front runners. I’m confident in Amy Madigan winning here, but either of her opponents would also be welcome on the Oscar stage as well.
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Who Should Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
A couple weeks ago, this category looked like it was being locked up around a single front-runner. Timothee Chalamet seemed to be running far ahead with his showy performance in Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. Chalamet has had a pretty strong run in his young career, getting his first nom in 2017 for Call Me By Your Name, and earning his second for last year’s A Complete Unknown, playing musical legend Bob Dylan. And of course, he’s the star of the mega popular Sci-Fi franchise Dune. And he’s done all of this before reaching the age of 30. Now, he seems poised to get the Oscar for Best Actor on his third try, pretty much cementing him as the most successful actor of his generation. But, that sure thing seems to be less certain now. The Actor Award from SAG-AFTRA instead went to Michael B. Jordan, for his performance as the Smoke Stack twins in Sinners. Just like the movie Sinners itself, Jordan seems to be riding high on some late momentum in this race. And this now looks like a two man race instead of just a sure thing for Chalamet. And I for one am happy about that because Michael B. Jordan would be my pick too. Chalamet’s performance is a bold one, especially given how unlikable his character becomes throughout the movie. But, Jordan is doing a lot more interesting things in his role. Not only is he playing twins convincingly, making them two distinct personalities, but then he also plays two different versions of one of the twins as he becomes (spoilers) a vampire halfway through the movie. It’s an incredible balancing act of a dual role, and it’s Jordan’s best work thus far in his already impressive career. The race still should be between these two, as the other nominees seem pretty much on the outside looking in. It’s nice to see Ethan Hawke get recognized for his transformative and talky performance as Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon. And DiCaprio is hilarious in his wild burned out revolutionary role in One Battle After Another, but he already has won before and for a much more challenging role in The Revenant (2015). While Michael B. Jordan may in fact pull an upset here, let’s also remember that Adrian Brody also lost the SAG award before winning his Oscar for The Brutalist (2024) last year; ironically to Timothee Chalamet. Chalamet may still end up winning, but Michael B. Jordan would indeed be worthy victor here too.
Who Will Win: Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Who Should Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Of all the acting categories this year, this is the one that is most set in stone leading up to the ceremony. Jessie Buckley has dominated in this category across all the precursor awards leading up to the Oscars, so it makes sense that people are handicapping her as the most likely winner. Is there potential for an upset? Of course; anything can happen at the Oscars, but it’s highly unlikely here. The Irish born and raised actress has had a chameleon like rise in Hollywood, mastering many different accents and appearances which has made her one of the most versatile actors working today. Let’s just hope the Academy ignores her starring role in the currently box office bombing The Bride! (2026). Her performances as Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, in Hamnet is one of those emotional, pull at the heartstrings kind of roles that the Academy values very much, and it’s one that uses her talents very well. It’s also a performance that I feel may have been too easy for her too. She really isn’t transformative in the role; she’s just playing it straight most of the time. It’s very low key, just like the movie itself, which is one of the reasons why it was a movie that I liked, but didn’t love. Perhaps what’s really carrying the groundswell of support for Buckley’s performance in the movie is the much talked about final scene in the film, which is where her acting really shines the brightest. She is most likely going to win this award easily, but I feel like the performance that tried the hardest this year was Rose Byrne’s unexpectedly raw turn in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Byrne’s very severe, dramatic performance in the movie is a huge departure from her more comedic work, and she delivers some truly unexpected depth in her role as a mother on the edge of sanity. If there was ever a spoiler in this category, it would be Rose Byrne, whose also mastering accents by hiding her natural Australian for an American accent in the film. But, an upset on her part is very much an outside shot, because Buckley has won pretty much every award there is thus far. She’s put in a lot of good years thus far playing a variety of different characters, and it just seems like her time this year, giving Hamnet it’s only sure shot Oscar.
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Who Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Chloe Zhao, Hamnet; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Ryan Coogler, Sinners; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
If there was another category that seemed like a sure thing at this year’s Oscars, it would be Best Director. Like Jessie Buckley in the Best Actress race, Paul Thomas Anderson has won every precursor award leading up to the Oscars in the Directing category. And it’s easy to see why. Anderson has been an industry staple for over 30 years in Hollywood. From Boogie Nights (1997), to There Will Be Blood (2007) to Phantom Thread (2017), the man has made one masterpiece after another. Now with One Battle After Another, it finally looks like he’s going to get his long overdue recognition from the Academy. One Battle is certainly his most ambitious movie to date; his first with an over $100 million price tag. And yet even with that budget, it still feels like one of his movies, showing that his directing style works just as well in small and big scales. The movie is also a tour de force in the craft of filmmaking. One of the most thrilling moments of cinema that I witnessed all last year was the final car chase scene in the movie, where the rolling hills made the sequence feel surreal, especially on a big screen. Anderson’s DGA Award win pretty much cinches his front runner status, but there’s always the possibility of a spoiler. The strongest competition would be from Ryan Coogler, whose movie is also a seminal work. Coogler certainly has one of the best sequences of the year with his amazing oner that glides through the night club and shows us icons from black culture spanning across time. He would have been an easy front runner in any other year, but Coogler is unfortunately going up against a beloved veteran who is getting his long overdue recognition. Not only is Paul Thomas Anderson a beloved filmmaker, but he’s also an ambassador in Hollywood for the culture of cinema itself. A strong advocate for the cinematic experience, Anderson has used his influence to help preserve old films and help support independent movie theaters in both Los Angeles and across the world. He is cherished in this industry, and that in addition to One Battle being one of his greatest films overall is what is making his Oscar win pretty much a guarantee.
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: Bugonia; F1: The Movie; Frankenstein; Hamnet; Marty Supreme; One Battle After Another; Sentimental Value; Sinners; Train Dreams; The Secret Agent
Definitely want to single the odd one out and say that there is no way F1 is winning this award. It’s the movie that got the benefit of the blockbuster spot this year, and with Wicked For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash failing to generate much hype this year, F1 became the surprise beneficiary. But, there is little doubt that this is a two movie race, and it pretty much has been since the start of the season. Sinners has the benefit of being the most nominated movie in history, a feat that will still cement it’s legacy for years to come. But, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another had a solid 13 nominations of it’s own. And the movie with the most nominations doesn’t always end up victorious; look at La La Land, for example. I do feel like One Battle After Another has the slight edge, given that Best Director and Best Picture often come as a pair. But, it could indeed be one of those split years, where one movie wins Director while the other wins Best Picture. We’ll only really know for certain who ends on top if one is having a better night than the other. It would be really funny and also historic if this year’s Best Picture race ended up in a tie. It’s happened in other categories, but never for Best Picture, but stranger things have happened. The ranked choice voting system used by the Academy possibly makes this scenario very unlikely, but you never know. A win for Sinners would be impressive, given that it released all the way back in April. For me, either film winning would make me happy, since they were my number 1 and number 2 films for the year of 2025. Of course, I want my #1 (One Battle After Another) to win, but Sinners winning would be great as well. It’s been two years in a row in fact where my #2 film of the year won Best Picture (2024’s Anora and 2023’s Oppenheimer). We’ll see if it happens a third time. And if One Battle wins, it will be the first time since 2014’s Birdman that my favorite film of the year won Best Picture. We’ll see how it all plays out, but I’ll be happy regardless and that’s a win for me. I don’t see much from the rest of the nominees in terms of spoilers, with maybe Sentimental Value having the most outside of chances. It’s One Battle or Sinners for the gold, and it will probably be the closest race we’ve seen in years.
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Should Win: One Battle After Another
And here is my quick rundown of picks for all the other categories:
Best Cinematography: One Battle After Another; Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another; Best Production Design: Frankenstein; Best Costume Design: Frankenstein; Best Sound: Sinners; Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: Frankenstein; Best Original Score: Sinners; Best Original Song: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash; Best Casting: One Battle After Another Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor; Best Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms; Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters; Best Animated Short: Papillon; Best Live Action Short: Two People Exchanging Saliva; Best International Feature: It Was Just an Accident
So, there you have my picks and thoughts about this year’s Oscar races. Thus far, I feel like this year has been fairly civil. There have been fierce attacks in the past to slander some movies over ridiculous reasons. Some were deserved, like those leveled at Emilia Perez which quickly took that movie out of the Oscar race last year, and some were not so deserved, like the allegations of using AI on The Brutalist, which we came to learn was merely used as part of the editing process and had nothing to do with the look of the film nor the performances. This year, most of the controversies surrounding individual films are pretty mild. It’s a good year when the only scanalous thing to happen in Awards season was Timothee Chalamet throwing unwarranted shade at the ballet and opera communities during an interview. Otherwise, it’s been fairly civil. Probably the reason for things not being nasty this year is because Hollywood has other things on their mind. Apart from all the turmoil going on in the Middle East, there’s also the existential dread about what a Warner Brothers and Paramount merger may mean for the industry. Yet another major studio may be swallowed up by one of it’s competitors, and suddenly there will be one less place to work in this industry. Movie theaters are already starving for more films, and the Warner Brothers/Paramount merger would make the outflow of new films even smaller coming from Hollywood. We are still a year out from this deal being finalized, but it’s nevertheless going to cast a pallor over this year’s Oscar ceremony. Ironically, Warner Brothers is pretty much guaranteed to win Best Picture, as they were the studio that put out the two front runners, One Battle and Sinners, so this may indeed be one last hurrah for the legendary studio. One thing I am looking forward to is seeing Conan O’Brien return as host. He did a great job last year, and he’s the ideal guy to bring light hearted entertainment in troubling times. With all that said, I hope we have a fun and generally positive Oscar ceremony this year. And no matter who wins, just know that movies far outlive their campaigns for Oscar glory and this year has given us plenty of movies that we’ll be talking about long after the Awards are through. An Oscar statue is just the desert after a good, filling meal, and all the greatest movies can thrive with or without being a winner on Oscar night.